Author: MasterBets - Friday, November 25, 2005

We have won 79% of all our NBA bets this season, and the secrets of our success are definitely worth sharing. A lot of it comes down to avoiding bad lines as much as taking advantage of soft lines.

Let's look at Friday night's card (November 25) in the NBA to give you some concrete examples of what we mean. There were a number of games that looked "easy" for people to bet on and win. For instance, the Pistons were at home to the Wizards, the Spurs were at home to the Bulls, and the Pacers were at home to the Hawks. In all three cases the home team were huge favorites, with double-digit point spreads. We looked closely at all three of these games and decided to pass on all of them.

The reason was the same in each case - a bad line. The Wizards tend to play the Pistons very tough, and came close to beating them on the road last season. The Bulls are a dangerous team this season, and are tough to blowout. The Pacers were coming off a huge win last night against the Cavaliers on national TV and were in danger of bouncing flat in a game against the hapless Hawks.

As it turns out it was a night of upsets in the NBA, which happens during the regular season. Not only did those three teams fail to cover, they all LOST STRAIGHT-UP!

We went for a fourth game where the home team looked strong - the Nuggets at home to the Clippers. This was a 5-point line where the only team likely to be flat would be the underdogs. The Clippers are off to an amazing start, playing above their level, and now they had to play in the toughest road environment. This was the game we went for, not because we are psychic or have a special system, but because we understand BETTING VALUE.

Don't fall into the easy NBA trap of betting double-digit favorites. The big win is not a given, especially during the regular season when teams can play at a low level, more so when they are playing on back-to-back days. Instead, search for one soft line per day, and track teams that are overvalued, as opposed to the media darlings that everyone already knows. You're more likely to find a soft line for a Utah game than you are for a San Antonio game, and that's the bottom line...

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