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Al McMordie Looks at Parks for Baseball Handicapping
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Author: Al McMordie - Friday, June 27, 2008
Stats and parks can help some trends stand out in baseball. For instance, the
Blue Jays play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto, one with a roof and
artificial turf. Baseballs scoot like a rocket through the infield on turf and
bounce like crazy in the outfield on line drives, many times off the wall. All
of which can help the offense. Notice that Toronto scores fewer runs offensively
on the road, where they are 24-14 under the total.
It hasn't changed since switching managers, with Cito Gaston now running the
show. Last week, they had their season-high seventh loss in a row, all to
National League clubs, 6-3 to the Pirates, their second such venture under
returning manager Gaston. They were also 6-15 against starting left-handers.
Here are some other baseball trends to keep an eye on.
Orioles: Surprising Baltimore entered last weekend with the best interleague
record (8-2) in the majors. The offense has heated up, on a 10-4 run over the
total.
White Sox: Chicago hasn't been impressive on the road, but at home the offense
averages 5.8 runs. On the road, just 4 runs per game. That explains why this
pitching-rich team started 23-13 under the total on the road. It also doesn't
help the offense that slugging first baseman Paul Konerko is on the 15-day
disabled list.
Chicago might be ready for a tumble, as this team has a lot of problems. They
are referring to combustabile manager Ozzie Guillen as "The Blizzard of Oz." He
apologized to fans after getting beat by the crosstown rival Cubs: "I want to
apologize to White Sox fans for losing the game. I brought the wrong guy to
pitch. Why did I pinch-hit Jim Thome? I was dumb." If you have a future's ticket
on the White Sox, you can't feel too good about it right now, unless it's to win
this weak division.
Angels: The amazing Angels are constructed as a team to look at under the total:
Great pitching, great bullpen, great defense. The offense hasn't been as good as
anticipated because of injuries, ranking 11th in the American League. They
probably aren't that concerned, as long as they keep winning. A month ago, the
Angels had three-quarters of their infield, two-fifths of their starting
rotation and one of their top relievers on the disabled list at the same time.
Shutting down the Phillies on the road, 7-1 and 6-2, was impressive, winning as
a dog each time. There's really no substitute for great pitching. The Angels are
on a 38-16-3 run under the total! With Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar now off the
disabled list, the Angels are the healthiest they've been since early April. And
with pitchers Kelvim Escobar and Chris Bootcheck having begun rehabilitation
assignments, there's a chance the team could be at full strength for the first
time this season before the All-Star break. A future's ticket on the Angels is
probably better than the White Sox.
Braves: Like the Cubs, Atlanta continues to be great at home, a totally
different team on the road. The Braves started 11-27 on the road, but 25-11 at
home. Note that the offense struggles on the road, as the team is 28-9 under the
total on the road!
Astros: Houston has fallen apart on a 3-17 run. And how about Astros pitcher
Shawn Chacon lashing out after being told by manager Cecil Cooper that he had
been removed from the starting rotation? "I think it's horse (beep)," Chacon
said. "That's pretty much how I feel about it. Sums it up." That also sums up
his pitching, 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA in his last four starts. With Roy Oswalt
struggling, the rotation is a huge problem with Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brian
Moehler and Brandon Backe.
Pirates: And speaking of struggling rotations, the Pirates have no trouble
scoring runs on the road (5.4 runs pg) but do struggle at home, averaging 4.4
rpg. The pitching, though, really melts away from home. In a 3-game sweep at
Chicago last week, the Pirates lost 16-5, 8-2 and 13-8. That sums up their road
play. Pittsburgh is a remarkable 27-7 over the total on the road! Good luck, as
always...Al McMordie.
Related Articles: - Handicapping Baseball Defense - Baseball Handicapping - Rise and Fall of AL Totals - 2008 NBA Finals - Back To The Future! - NBA Playoff Notes - Adjustments and Defense
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