Author: Big Al McMordie - Thursday, July 06, 2006

So what baseball teams should a handicapper look to when analyzing odds: The good, the bad or the ugly ones? Well, you should examine all teams and lines in various situations, of course. However, let me say a few words about how bad and very ugly teams can look wonderful in the eyes of the professional handicapper.

Bad teams can fly under the radar far more easily than good ones. Remember that lines are set in part with public perception in mind. High profile baseball teams are the big name ones, like the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Dodgers. These are teams that, for the most part, have money to spend on big-name players and managers, and are on television often. Public bettors love to bet on TV games, so often you can see public teams getting little value.

I recall a game earlier this season where Yankee pitcher Jaret Wright and his below-average stuff (and high ERA) were a minus-370 favorite in a game! Granted it was against the Royals, and the Yankees did win the game, but it was only 6-5 with Wright pitching poorly. I would not recommend laying 370 to win 100 with Jaret Wright on the mound (after all, the Royals have already won a game at Yankee Stadium this season).

Baseball is a long season. Pitchers and hitters go into slumps and hot streaks, and players and coaches can get into spats over 162 games. There are several factors to keep in mind when analyzing bad teams that can help you as a bettor, and talented teams on paper that aren't living up to their capabilities.

1. Lethargy: Teams out of the postseason hunt can simply not care anymore. Bad teams can develop a sense of complacency and lethargy. The Royals and Pirates have had several bad seasons in a row now, but even high profile teams can stumble through this. The Cubs have had a dismal first half. Keep a close eye on what the players are saying and whether they are inspired to play or just going through the motions.

2. Pitching: While all teams go through slumps and slides, what carries legitimate playoff teams through the long summer is pitching depth. Even good teams can go on 8-game skids, for example, but if a team has quality pitching, both starters and middle relief, the likelihood of them turning around is far greater than one relying on offense to overcome weak pitching.

3. Disenchantment: Athletes are human and can get frustrated and not show up to play hard if they're not happy. Check out the stats on the Florida Marlins from last year. On paper, the team had enormous talent and great pitching depth. But they were never a together group and were very underachieving.

4. Trade Deadline: Sometimes teams can get that one missing piece, either from the farm system in mid-season or the trade deadline at the end of this month. Boston found it in 2004, trading unhappy SS Nomar Garciaparra for Orlando Cabrera. This upgraded the defense and loosened up the clubhouse. They were an underachieving club before that move, then took off like a skyrocket on the way to winning the World Series.

For handicapping purposes, it can be just as profitable to look to go against bad teams with numerous problems, rather than to search for good teams to wager on. Be wary of public teams, as they can be overpriced. Because ugly teams can look oh so beautiful when you're cashing tickets at the betting window!

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Related Articles:
- Big Al McMordie's NFL Preseason Report
- MLB Handicapping - The Pennant Chase
- NFL Total Season Wins (Part 2)
- NFL Futures Betting - Total Season Wins (Part 1)
- Handicapping Baseball's Best Pennant Race
- Baseball's Young Arms
- Baseball's Second-Half Key - Pitching!
- Big Al Looks At Baseball Runs

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