Baseball's Second-Half Key - Pitching!
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Author: Big Al McMordie - Monday, June 26, 2006
You'll notice that in baseball the Wild Card entry has won three of the
last four World Series. That's the Angels, Marlins and Red Sox from
2002-04. None of those teams impressed in the first half of the season,
and in fact the Marlins were poor. All three had to play like
gangbusters down the stretch to squeeze into the playoffs.
All those
teams had players that said something similar: "It's good to be pressed
to make the playoffs, because it helps in October." They felt it was
better to have to win late in the season, rather than have a big lead in
September and coast into the postseason.
The point is, just because a manager can rest players in September
doesn't mean that team has an edge in the postseason. And just because a
team has to go down to the wire to clinch doesn't mean they might be
burned out in October. We are starting the second half of the baseball
season. A year ago at this juncture the Houston Astros were 38-42, in
third place in the NL Central. They certainly didn't look like World
Series material at that point, did they? But Houston got hot in the
second half of the season, riding its outstanding pitching troika of
Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte, all the way to the pennant.
Two years ago the Oakland A's were 46-34 and primed to either win the
division or secure a Wild Card spot, just like the previous season. They
went 45-37 after that, which isn't bad, but 91 wins didn?t cut it,
either, losing out to the red-hot Angels and Red Sox. One of the
interesting stories of this baseball season has been the surprising
start of the Cincinnati Reds. It might surprise you to know that two
years ago the Reds also had a strong first half of the season with a
44-37 record. But they fell apart in the second half.
Pitching was their downfall in 2004, a problem they upgraded this year
with the addition of starter Bronson Arroyo. Adding one pitcher isn't a
cure-all, but it can help. Certainly the Astros hope adding ace Roger
Clemens is going to be a huge plus that gives them the same kind of
second half run they had a year ago. That's the key, really, regarding
consistent play in the second half of the season: pitching. The A's won
91 games two years ago because they had terrific starting pitching,
while the Reds flopped miserably with little in the way of quality arms
in 2004. And with the trading deadline approaching soon, teams will be
scrambling for pitching first.
If you examine the teams that are in contention now, take a look at
their pitching depth, both starting and relieving. Do they have more
than one consistent starter? Or at the very least a deep, versatile
bullpen? That was the key to the Angels success in 2002. As for having
more than one strong starter, only a handful of teams can claim this,
such as the White Sox, Red Sox, Astros, Cardinals and Tigers.
In 2004, the eventual NL Champion Cardinals had brilliant defense, a
monster offensive lineup and a deep pen. The one thing they lacked was
strong starting pitching. Tony LaRussa was able to mask that deficiency
because of a deep pen and the team's terrific defense in the field. The
loss of Chris Carpenter in the 2004 postseason was a big blow, too, as
he was their ace. There have been several surprise teams in baseball
this season, and it's going to be interesting to see if they have strong
second half finishes, or folds. If you want to get a jump on predicting
which teams might rise and which might fall, your first step should be
to check out starting pitching.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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