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Betting MLB Totals - The Impact of Parks And Lineup Changes
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Author: Big Al McMordie - Tuesday, July 06, 2010
July 6 - Offense has been down a bit the last few seasons in major league
baseball. There are many theories about this, from teams shoring up the
relief staff as many games are decided in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings,
to the decrease in steroids. Another factor that's always worth
considering is the ballpark. It's no secret that the dimensions of parks
play a role not only in how a team plays but in how a team is
constructed.
When wagering on baseball totals (we are 68-47 on our MLB Totals thus
far), it's important to look at the park, the defense and the pitching
staffs -- both starting and relief pitching. Current teams with large,
pitcher-friendly parks are Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium in LA,
Comerica in Detroit, Petco in San Diego and the Oakland Coliseum.
Let's take a closer look at the A's. They are a good team at home but
terrible on the road, which is why they are in third place. This is not
a very good offense, so they are only able to compete when the pitching
staff keeps them close in games. This is more likely at home, as Oakland
is a huge park. 22-year old starter Trevor Cahill has a 1.35 ERA at
home, but that balloons to 3.70 on the road. He's given up 8 homers on
the road but none at home! The same thing is evident with starter Gio
Gonzalez, who has a 2.36 ERA at home and a 4-2 record, but a 4.71 ERA on
the road.
Oakland starts a home stand this week against the Yankees and Angels.
They carry a 4-1 run under the total at home into it from their last
home stand. I recall a few years ago when the A's were on a long road
trip at the end of July where they went to hitter-friendly parks in New
York and Boston, going 6-1-1 over the total. Professional sports bettors
carefully look at parks and trends like this, in addition to offensive
production.
Of course, things can change during the course of a season, too, and
it's important for handicappers to evaluate adjustments to see if it may
influence sides and totals. The White Sox, for instance, were not having
a good season, until the last month. Their pitching and defense has
really carried them during their hot streak, currently on an 11-3 run
under the total. The White Sox have very good pitching and the defense
has allowed the third fewest errors in the American League.
The Red Sox are a team that is going to be difficult to gauge this
month because of all their injuries. Star second baseman Dustin Pedroia
is out six weeks with a broken foot. Offensively, he's a huge asset, the
2008 MVP and the day before his injury he hit three home runs at
Colorado. So are they a team to look at under the total without him?
Well, he's also a dynamite defensive player at second base.
The offense is also without catchers Victor Martinez and Jason
Varitek, but has some good news on the pitching front. Josh Beckett
faced hitters for the first time since going on the disabled list May
19, throwing 41 pitches at Fenway Park this weekend against players from
the independent Brockton Rox. Clay Buchholz also took a step forward,
throwing off a mound for the first time since straining his lower left
hamstring while running the bases in San Francisco last Saturday.
Buchholz is scheduled to throw a full bullpen session tomorrow and is
tentatively set to start this week against Tampa Bay.
And talk about owning one team: Pitcher Jon Lester cruised, winning
for the 10th time in his last 11 decisions and improved to 12-0 with a
2.00 ERA in 15 career starts against Baltimore this weekend in a 9-3 Red
Sox win. You might think the Orioles would be a team to look at under
the total because their offense is so bad, but they are a bad fielding
team (5th most errors in the AL) and the pitching is dead last. They are
on an 11-3 run over the total and head into the All Star break by
playing at Texas for a four game series, an easy home run park. Pity the
Baltimore staff this weekend!
Pity the Cubs, too, who play in a hitter-friendly park, but they have
been a better team to look at under the total because the pitching is
above average (5th in team ERA in the NL) while the offense has been a
disaster, 14th in the NL in runs scored. Cubs manager Lou Piniella used
his 66th lineup in the 79th game of the season Friday against the Reds.
"What's hard for me to believe is that we can go as long as we have
struggling to put runs on the board on a more consistent basis,"
Piniella said. "The rest of it, all we can do is keep putting a lineup
out there and giving people opportunities and we go from there. If you
don't have timing and you don't have mechanics down by now, well. . . .
" He didn't finish the rest of the sentence, but I will: The Cubs are on
a 13-7 run under the total.
With all the buzz about Stephen Strasburg, it's easy to overlook the
fact that the Nationals play in a huge, pitcher -riendly park. That's
one reason their offense is 13th in the National League in runs scored.
Washington is on a home stand leading up to the All Star break and is on
an 11-3 run under the total. Betting totals can be just as profitable
as sides in baseball, and knowing the parks, injuries and daily lineup
changes can help a smart bettor turn a profit. Good luck, as
always...Al McMordie.
Related Articles:
- 2010 MLB Action - Great Races Everywhere
- Baseball Betting - Pitching Injuries and Overuse
- NBA Finals - Defense and Adjustments
- Lakers Celtics Betting Preview For The NBA Finals
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