Author: Matt Fargo - Wednesday, August 30, 2006

#85 - Miami Ohio RedHawks 7-4 SU; 6-5 ATS

Fargo's Take: Similar to many other MAC teams, the RedHawks main priority is to replace a star quarterback, this one being Josh Betts. Miami has been fortunate over the last six years by having a stud as the signal caller (Ben Roethlisberger four years prior to Betts) so this will be something new in Oxford. The one thing backers can count on is that the running game will be heavily used because of the quarterback situation but a concern there is the inexperienced offensive line to run behind. Making matters even worse is that the defense needs to replace nine starters from the 39th ranked defense from a season ago. The defense has been solid over the last three seasons, allowing 21.8 ppg over that span but that is sure to increase this year. All of this adds up to something Miami hasn't seen in 13 years and that is a losing season. The schedule is not easy as more than half of the RedHawks games are on the road and there are no breaks to be able to get a run going.

Returning Starters on Offense - 5 Replacing Betts is obviously the biggest task at hand but replacing four veteran offensive linemen cannot be taken lightly. The offense is going to revolve around running back Brandon Murphy, who finished last season with 1,070 yards and nine touchdowns. While Murphy's numbers are expected to increase even more this year, it won't be as easy as it seems since he was running behind one of the best lines in the MAC and had a solid signal caller to take pressure off. The most exciting player on offense is receiver Ryne Robinson, who had 1,119 yards and eight touchdowns and if likely starter Mike Kokal can get him the ball, he can make big things happen. Robinson is also a master of the punt return as he needs just 259 yards to break the all-time NCAA record in return yardage. The offense has averaged at least 31.3 ppg in each of the last four seasons but that looks to be an unattainable number in 2006.

Returning Starters on Defense - 2 Returning just two starters from the MAC's third ranked defense spells trouble for the RedHawks. It isn't like there is a lot of experience either as Miami has only four seniors on the entire two-deep chart compared to nine sophomores and four freshmen. The strength of the unit is in the secondary where free safety Joey Card is one of those retuning starters while cornerback Frank Wiwo did have a handful of starts back in 2004. The front seven is a huge concern with defensive end Craig Mester being the only returnee. The rushing defense finished 44th in the country last season but it did allow a rather lofty 4.1 ypc, the most in three years and that average will likely go up even more this year. But there is some history on their side. This is the least amount of returning starters since 1995 and Miami allowed only 15 ppg and 165 ypg that year.

Schedule Seven of Miami's 12 games are on the road this season including games at Purdue, Syracuse and Cincinnati, the last two against teams ranked lower than the RedHawks heading into this season. They start the season against Northwestern at home which will be a very emotional game for the Wildcats. The first two conference games are at home against Kent St. and Northern Illinois and following the game against the Huskies, Miami travels for four of its next five. That includes a game at frontrunner Akron and an improved Western Michigan team. The season finale is at home against Ohio and while the RedHawks miss Toledo, they also miss Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan, the two bottom teams in the MAC West.

You can bet on... Miami is the least experienced team in the MAC and it's going to show at least early on. The first six games make for a tough stretch even though there are no true powerhouses involved in the mix. The RedHawks should jell together by the second half of the season but by then it could be too late. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as an underdog and it will be in that role many times this season. It's worth keeping an eye on, especially on the road where the RedHawks have dropped four straight when getting points. It's going to be an uphill battle but this is the MAC and we have seen some strange things from this conference in years past. It's just something that shouldn't be counted on.

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