Author: Matt Fargo - Sunday, July 16, 2006

#101 - Bowling Green Falcons 6-5 SU; 3-8 ATS

Fargo's Take: It is strange seeing Bowling Green ranked this low but that is the case for the Falcons this season. It's a rebuilding year at Bowling Green as the normally powerful offense will be going through some drastic changes and will be nowhere near the same unit as we are accustomed to seeing. Gone is quarterback Omar Jacobs along with the entire backfield and key players from the receiving corps. Head coach Gregg Brandon is one of the best offensive minds around and he can make it work but with little experience coming back, it will be a test. The Falcons could very well run the table in the MAC East but with so many question marks, they cannot be counted on to accomplish that. On the other side of the ball, the defense was very inconsistent last season and there is not a lot of talent returning as Bowling Green has to replace six starters. In 2005, the Falcons held five teams to 14 or fewer points but also allowed 44 or more points four times. Things likely will not get better unless the incoming freshmen break through right away.

Returning Starters on Offense - 5 The offense averaged 33.8 ppg last season, 18th in the country and that was without the services of Jacobs for a few games. Anthony Turner was put into action as a freshman and that experience will go a long way in 2006. In his three starts last year, Bowling Green averaged only 18.3 ppg so expectations cannot be too high. Turner does not have the same abilities as Jacobs as he is more of a running quarterback so expect to see a lot of different looks from the Falcons. The biggest strength of the offense is the line and that is a very import factor when dealing with a young and inexperienced team. The starting five all have good experience and it will be up to them to make the unit come together. The schedule is easy early on and that is another factor that can help the offense come together quickly.

Returning Starters on Defense - 5 Bowling Green has never been very strong on defense and that isn't going to change this year. The Falcons are young with six starters likely being freshmen and sophomores along with eight more on the second unit. In total, there are only four seniors on the entire depth chart so growing pains are likely. Similar to the offense, the easy schedule early in the season will no doubt help things but once the slate gets tougher, things could go downhill fast. Bowling Green was 86th in the country in rushing defense last season and with a thin group on the line and at linebacker, it will be difficult to show any progress. The MAC is thin on offenses this season so if there is any year that a rebuilding project needs to take place, this is the best year possible.

Schedule Bowling Green could not have asked for a better schedule at least early on. The Falcons open the season with a neutral site game against Wisconsin but the next four games against Buffalo, Florida International, Kent St. and Ohio should be wins and a 4-1 record heading into a game at Ohio St. would be huge. The slate gets tough down the stretch with four of their final five games being on the road with the lone home game coming against Miami. The biggest drawback of the schedule is that Bowling Green only has four home games all year and that could be detrimental for a young team.

You can bet on... Early wins and late losses is the likely scenario for the Falcons who must mount some major upsets to have a chance in the East division. That division is the weaker of the two so if Akron somehow stumbles, Bowling Green can be in the mix. The Falcons dropped a ton of cash last season as they could not cover the big spreads, losing their last four as double digit chalk. It will be hard for them to cover any large spreads this season with the offense that is not going to be able to outscore the opponent like it did in the past. It will be important to get an early read on this team before jumping on or even against them in the first part of the year.

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