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matt fargo

Fargo's Weekly Golf Betting Preview

Author: Matt Fargo - Tuesday, May 09, 2006

EDS Byron Nelson Championship Preview

TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas, Irving, Texas

Billy Ray Brown, Neal Lancaster, Robert Damron and Ted Purdy. Those are four relatively no name players who have won the EDS Byron Nelson Classic since 1992. Factor in wins by Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia and what you have is a wide open tournament this week in Dallas, Texas. With Mickelson's last minute withdrawal, three of the top five are here - Singh, Els, and Retief Goosen.

The 2005 edition will likely not be remembered for Purdy winning but Tiger Woods missing the cut, which was the first time he didn't play the weekend in seven years and 142 events. He is making the return trip due to the death of his father while Mickelson cited personal reasons for his departure. Purdy won the event last year with precision as he finished the week first in greens in regulation and first in birdies made with 20. That precision will be key again especially if the Texas wind makes an appearance.

Only three players have successfully defended their title in Dallas and those names are Snead, Nicklaus and Watson. Sorry Purdy but history is not on your side nor are your 60-1 odds coming in. With Mickelson out, Jim Furyk vaulted to the top of the charts as he is the betting favorite at 9-1. He is coming off a win at the Wachovia last week and brings with him five top 20 finishes in his last seven starts at the Nelson. He has finished third or better in three of his last four events this season.

Singh is right behind Furyk at 10-1 and rightfully so since he is a past champion and finished third last year. A final round 78 in 2004 put him in a tie for 59th after he came into Sunday in 5th place so basically he has been at the top of the leaderboard the last three years. After placing in the top ten in three straight events, Singh has finished 36th and 38th in his last two starts so he isn't exactly coming in with a lot of momentum. Success at this course makes up for that.

Els has been up and down the entire year and has not put together back-to-back top tens on the season. He has alternated good and bad all year so his 38th place finish last week could mean he is ready for a good finish here. He won here in 1995 and while not being able to close the deal since then, his last three starts at the Nelson has resulted in finishes of 10th, 7th and 4th. He could be ready to go once again and his 12-1 odds are fairly inviting and if anyone is due, it's Els.

Adam Scott, Luke Donald and Garcia all come in at 20-1 and all three have good things going their way. Scott is coming off a 3rd place finish at the Wachovia last week while Donald has three top 20 finishes at the Nelson in three starts. Garcia has stumbled recently with finishes of 46th and 38th in his last two starts but as a former winner in Dallas, he cannot be counted out. However, his 75 at the Wachovia on Sunday kept his 2006 streak alive of seven straight final rounds of 73 or higher. A closer he is not.



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