Author: Matt Fargo - Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Florida Marlins

2004 83W 79L -17.5 Units Over/Under 74-75-13

2005 83W 79L -15.4 Units Over/Under 82-73-7

The Marlins went through their second firesale in less than a decade and it will show on the field this season. Gone is pretty much everyone from last season with the exception of third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis. This will be the youngest team in baseball with no offense, no pitching and no bullpen. 100 or more losses are likely but the secret will be finding those 60 spots to actually wager on the Marlins.

Florida was a disappointment for its backers last season as the Marlins dropped over 15 units against the moneyline and over 12 units against the runline. If the Marlins do drop 100 games, their average moneyline will have to be +162 in order to have a break even year and as bad as they are predicted to be, it just might happen. Kansas City averaged a +158.5 moneyline last season and Florida is expected to be even worse so while making money over the long haul isn't an option, picking spots is.

The Marlins went 82-73 over but with a complete overhaul of both the offense and pitching, it's hard to predict how the totals will fall this season. Most teams with young pitching obviously struggle but the question is whether or not the offense can keep pace scoring runs. A lot of 6-2 or 7-1 games could be in the cards giving no value either way. It will be important to keep an eye on this team early in the season as a trend could form from the beginning that could take the lines a while to adjust.

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