Author: Tom Stryker - Friday, November 10, 2006

LAST HOME GAME HONEY

It's called "Senior Day" - the final home game of the regular season. If you truly are a senior, it's the last time you'll button up your chinstrap, run out of the tunnel and hear the roar of the home crowd. Emotions run very high. No one wants to leave the field of play on this day a loser. The blood, sweat and tears...well, they're almost over. You get one more chance to experience the thrill of victory and you give it everything you've got.

Since emotions play a big part in college football handicapping, "Last Home Game" sets can be very profitable. I've been monitoring a handful of great "LHG" systems and the one I'm going to share with you today is pretty powerful. This one is called "Last Home Game Honey" and its results have been phenomenal. Take a look.

On the blind, teams playing in their last home game of the season hold a 328-288 ATS record for 53.2 percent provided they enter off a straight up road win. That's a huge sample and certainly there is no way you would want to play every school in that set. There's simply not enough profit there. But, by adding two simple parameters, we can convert this technical situation into one that "shows us the money".

Since 1980, last home game favorites of -21 or less that enter off a straight up road win are a tremendous 110-61 ATS for 64.3 percent provided this is NOT their last game of the season. On Friday, Central Michigan fits this awesome situation. Then, on Saturday, East Carolina, Florida and Oklahoma all apply. If we bring our home team in off an ATS win as well, this system zips to a sterling 88-39 ATS for 69.2 percent. Out of those four teams, the only one that qualifies in this special tightener is East Carolina.

There is one more additional tightener that applies to the Pirates on Saturday that is worth a look. It seems those "play on" schools that haven't experienced as much success during the course of the season do a little better when this system pops. Check this out! If our last home game honey owns a won/loss percentage that is less than .625, this powerful technical situation explodes to a magnificent 38-8 ATS for 82.6 percent! If you think about that tightener for a second, it makes perfect sense. If you haven't been at your best during the course of the regular season, then most certainly you will want to close on a high note. That would mean a victory in your last home game! East Carolina fits this final parameter perfectly!

Good luck with the Pirates and be sure to check back next week for another power system!

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