Author: Tom Stryker - Saturday, November 04, 2006

Bye-Bye Profits

College teams aren't the only ones privy to a week of rest. The pro ranks decided a bye would be in the best interest of the sport too.

For the teams that have players injured and dinged up, this time off can be used for healing. If there are certain offensive or defensive areas that need attention, this break provides the perfect opportunities to fine tune those weak spots as well.

When it comes to sports handicapping, NFL bye weeks can provide profitable scenarios. Obviously, with extra time to prepare, the knee-jerk reaction would be to jump all over a rested team coming off a straight up loss. Believe it or not, that's exactly what you don't want to do. For example, bye favorites that enter off a SU and ATS loss in their last game are a surprising 30-46-2 ATS since 1992.

This week's NFL System of the Week touches on this theme a little bit. Let's say we're looking at a rested team that enters off a game in which they lost to the pointspread by 10 points or more. This revved up pro squad would bounce back in a big way after laying an egg in their last game don't you think? Wrong! Consider the following NFL system:

Play AGAINST any NFL regular season team coming off a week of rest provided they lost to the pointspread by 10 points or more last.

15 Year Record = 67-41-2 ATS for 62.0 percent!

Off a game in which a team lost to the pointspread by double-digits, one would immediately assume that this pro squad would bounce back given the extra time to prepare. In reality the reverse happens! There are two NFL teams stuck in this "play against" situation on Sunday: Buffalo and Miami!

There is one additional parameter that we can add to this system that really makes it pop. If our bye team is matched up against an opponent that enters off a momentum-building SU and ATS win, this system crashes to a shocking 13-38-2 ATS! That's a 74.5 percent winning situation! Thankfully, the Bills and Dolphins both fit this tightener on Sunday!

This technical situation fades Buffalo and Miami on Sunday so good luck with Green Bay and Chicago. Next week, I'll be back with a Last Home Game College System that will rock your world! Best of luck this weekend men!

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