Author: Tom Stryker - Friday, January 11, 2008

TOM STRYKER'S NFL SYSTEM of the WEEK

NFL Divisional Dandy

In the "Elite Eight" stage of the NFL Playoffs, the history book shows that the home team has performed very well. According to my database, hosts at this stage of the game are a respectable 81-27 SU and 59-46-3 ATS. Even though I think there are a couple of road teams that have a very good shot at pulling off an upset this weekend, respect must be given to this profitable technical situation.

Last year, home teams posted a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS record in this round. On January 13th, 2006 Indianapolis defeated Baltimore 15-6 and New Orleans topped Philadelphia 27-24. Then, on Sunday, January 14th, New England stormed into San Diego and pulled off the amazing 24-21 upset and Chicago slipped past Seattle in the Windy City 27-24.

There will be some home teams that cover this weekend. You know that. The question at hand is which ones will it be? To answer that, I turned to my database to try and find which hosts deserved a closer look and more of our money.

On thing you might not want to do is back a home team in the Divisional Round coming off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. According to my NFL database, those hosts owned a dismal 21-26-2 ATS record. That eliminates Green Bay from the mix. From there, home dogs or favorites of -9 or less are still extremely profitable carrying a 39-8 SU and 32-14-1 ATS record. Only two of the remaining three home teams apply to this tightener: Indianapolis and Dallas.

If we eliminate all of the power road teams from that 32-14-1 ATS tightener, the ones that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .650, home teams in this situation explode to a sensational 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent. There is only one host locked into this sweet set this weekend: Dallas. With a week of rest and matched up against a weaker opponent, the Cowboys are obviously in a great spot.

Good luck with the Dallas Cowboys this weekend and be sure to check back next week when I take a look at the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs! TS

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