Author: Tom Stryker - Thursday, September 14, 2006

College Football's Week Three System Money-Maker

If you take a look at the College Football schedule, you'll notice that a few teams pad their September with a couple of cupcakes or a string of home games. The thought process behind that action is obvious. Let's grab some early wins in the comfort of our own home and build a little momentum before the heart of the conference schedule begins. Good idea right? Wrong! Let me explain.

I'm a firm believer that an early test is a good thing for a college football team. It's hard to get a handle on exactly where you're at playing the Little Sisters of the Poor in your own backyard. The confidence a team picks up from wins of that nature can be misleading. This system that I'm about to break down touches on that fact a little bit. Here's what you want to do:

Play AGAINST any game three college road team coming off back-to-back home battles to start the season provided they are matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

27 Year Record ? 31-13 ATS for 70.5 percent

The premise for this angle is really quite simple. Here we have a college team playing their first road war of the season - after being in the comforts of home for two consecutive games - matched up against an opponent that checks in with a ton of momentum of their own. Emotion plays a huge part in college football and sometimes it can be hard to match when forced to step up your level of play on foreign soil. Also, a team isn't just knocking helmets with anyone in this game three setting. They're going up against an opponent with a ton of steam on their home turf! That's a tall order!

On Saturday, there are five guests locked into this play against situation: LSU, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Miami of Florida.

With every system, I like to fine tune the parameters to try and tighten things up a bit. If we eliminate big road underdogs of +24 or more and also make sure our "play on" team won seven or more of its last 22 games, this Game Three Money-Maker improves to a blistering 28-5 ATS for 84.8 percent. Auburn, Pittsburgh, Oregon and Louisville are the four teams that fit this tightener.

This game three college system is one of the best I own and certainly needs to be respected. If you plan on investing your hard earned dough on the Tigers, Panthers, Ducks or Cardinals, this technical situation will allow you to go to the window with a little more confidence. Of course, if you want to open up your wallet for LSU, Michigan State, Oklahoma or Miami of Florida, you might want to reconsider! Good luck!

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