Author: Al McMordie - Saturday, June 21, 2008
From a betting standpoint, defense can be linked to totals along with the
overall team's pitching staff. For example, the young Marlins are prone to
errors, the worst defensive team in the National League. They also have a young
pitching staff that is fourth worst in the NL. Throw in the fact that their
offense is very good, and that's a more likely combination for high scoring
games. Florida started 38-24 over the total, including 18-10 over on the road.
Unearned runs may not count on a pitcher's ERA, but it counts when you have a
ticket on the over!
In the American League, the young Texas Rangers have made the most errors. Like
Florida, they have a terrific offense but a terrible pitching staff, one ranked
last in the AL. Yes, the Rangers have been an over machine with that
combination, starting 39-26, including 21-13 over the total away from home.
Defense is something the defending champion Red Sox have put a premium on, ever
since their 2005 team couldn't pitch or hit. In 2006 the front office made a
concerted effort to prioritize the defense after a 2005 season where Boston's
pitching and defense were flawed. Basically, they won 95 games in 2005 with
offense, which is why they got swept out of the playoff quickly by the White Sox.
They changed the makeup of the team and were far more balanced in 2006, bringing
in SS Alex Gonzalez and 3B Mike Lowell while getting rid of poor defensive
players 1B Kevin Millar and SS Edgar Renteria.
Young players like Jacoby Ellsbury and 2B Dustin Pedroia are solid defensively,
they resigned Lowell over the winter, while 1B Kevin Youkalis just had his
consecutive errorless streak at first base end. That rock solid defense helped
pave the way to another title last October. The team they played in the World
Series, the Rockies, was tops in all of baseball last season in team defense.
Yet, 2008 has been completely different, ranked second worst in the NL in
defense, a contributor to their terrible start.
Minnesota is an organization that has preached the importance of defense for
years, but this offseason they let CF Torri Hunter walk and traded a slick
infielder 2B Akinori Iwamura to Tampa Bay. The Twins defense has suffered this
season, ranked sixth worst in baseball. Shoddy defense is an even larger
detriment when playing indoors on artificial carpet, like the Twins do in the
Metrodome. The Twins started 39-28 over the total and are currently on a 12-4
run over the total.
The team they traded Iwamura to, Tampa Bay, has been the biggest surprise of the
season. Yes, the pitching staff has been impressive, but so has the defense,
tops in the AL. Note that the Rays started 24-10 under the total at home. Good
defense helps a pitching staff, turning would-be singles into more double plays.
Fewer errors means less pitches thrown, so pitchers are less likely to wear down
in a game or over the course of a season.
The Detroit Tigers' terrible start has been largely attributed to their poor
pitching, but note that their defense hasn't helped, making the third most
errors in the American League. The only thing going right in a disastrous season
for the San Diego Padres is that they've made the fewest errors in all of
baseball. The Padres are also 23-15 under the total at home, playing in a great
pitcher's park. When examining totals, pitching and offense are the most
important numbers, but the quality of defense is also a key factor to measure.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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