Author: Trey Johnson - Tuesday, August 15, 2006

We've all heard the adage to win in the NFL just take the home team. When you look at the straight up records over the last 25 years that train of thought seems to hold true. Since 1980 teams are a solid 3627-2539-13 SU for 59 percent on their home turf. But, do those straight up numbers translate into against the spread winners?

The answer is a resounding no! Since 1980 the home team covers the spread 48 percent of the time. I'm no mathematician but, any way I try to work the numbers, 48 percent still comes up a loser.

Ok. So overall home teams don't cover but what about home favorites? Good teams favored at home have to cover the spread, don't they? Once again, No! Over the last 25 seasons home favorites cover the spread at a 47 percent clip.

Well, ok maybe home favorites aren't the way to go but double digit home favorites have to cover. I mean come on; they are DD home favorites for a reason aren't they? Nope! Double digit home favorites cover the spread a whopping 47 percent of the time. Wow, so much for playing home favorites.

All right! If home favorites aren't the way to go then home dogs have to cash in don't they? Nope! Actually, home dogs do perform a little better than home favorites but still not good enough to start planning your retirement somewhere sunny! Since 1980 home dogs have a combined 960-870-49 ATS record for 51 percent. We're still paying the juice!

That leaves us with the dreaded double digit dog. A team so terrible they shouldn't be on the same field as their opponent. Imagine being on your home turf and being so bad the linemakers feel your opponent will beat you by double digits. Ouch! That has to hurt, but does it hurt enough to motivate a sub par team? Not much but it helps. Over the last 25 seasons DD dogs have covered at a blistering 53 percent pace.

Let's break it down a little further. Home teams have to make money somewhere! How about home teams with rest? Nope, 50 percent ATS! Home teams with revenge? Revenge is great! Teams with revenge always cover. Wrong! Home teams with revenge only cover the spread 49 percent of the time. I know, how about home teams off a SU ATS win! Umm, No! Home teams off SU ATS wins cover 50 percent while home teams off SU ATS losses cover at a 47 percent pace. In fact I came up with the same results in every situation I researched.

The bottom line! Playing NFL home teams is a 50 percent proposition. So much for home field advantage!

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