Author: Matt Fargo - Sunday, May 15, 2005

OPS Will Help You Increase Your Profits

When looking at baseball statistics, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are two very powerful numbers to look at. Put them together and we get a combined statistic termed OPS. It's nothing fancy but it can be a very useful tool when handicapping. Hitting home runs is nice but getting on base and knocking them around produces even more runs and that is the ultimate goal to winning. A team with a solid OPS will give you a lot of runs and a better chance of winning.

As of May 12th, the Toronto Blue Jays lead the Majors in OPS at .850 while the Chicago Cubs are last at .681. That is a vast difference and understanding how those numbers translate to wins and losses is the goal in terms of handicapping. Obviously, the higher the OPS, the more likely you will see a higher number of runs scored. There are exceptions however. Milwaukee is 7th in the league in OPS but only 16th in runs scored. The Braves are 8th in runs scored but 18th in OPS. These are the only two real extremes.

With the designated hitter in the American League, it comes as no surprise that the top five teams in the Majors in OPS are from there. What is a surprise however is that of the seven teams with an OPS below .700, four of those are from the AL. Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Los Angeles are the four squads and those four are also ranked 25th, 27th, 30th and 26th respectively in runs scored. The top five teams in OPS are also ranked in the top 10 in runs scored with Detroit (9th) being the only team outside the top five.

How can this help us in handicapping? It's pretty straightforward actually. There are eight teams in all of baseball that have an OPS higher than .800 and six of those have shown profits through the first 35 or so games the season. Only Cleveland (.848 OPS) and Milwaukee (.807 OPS) are in the red. In total, those eight teams are a combined +25.7 units on the season which is extremely impressive this early in the season. Keeping it up throughout the entire year is the challenge.

The seven teams that are below .700 in OPS have not fared well against the moneyline this year. Those seven teams are a combined -37.1 units on the season with Tampa Bay and San Diego being the only two teams showing a profit from that group. That profit is not that big as the Devil Rays and Padres are a combined +1.6 units on the year. Blindly betting on or against these two groups is not the way to go about it since other factors do need to be taken into consideration before pulling the trigger.

OPS affects total plays as well. The theory is that teams with a high OPS generally score more runs thus their games would go over more often than not. That theory holds true through the early part of the season as those eight teams with an OPS of .800 or greater are 147-116 over (55.9 percent). The opposite effect of a lower OPS leading to fewer runs and lower totals does not hold true however. The bottom seven teams with an OPS of .700 or less are just 113-122 under (48.1 percent) showing that those teams have some poor pitching to go along with their poor offense.

Adding OPS to your handicapping arsenal will give you some excellent information to look at will no doubt increase your profits in the long run. Best of luck and wager wisely.

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