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Kentucky Derby Early Bird Preview
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Author: MasterBets - Friday, April 06, 2007
April 06 - I don't handicap a lot of horse races but cannot resist the Triple Crown where there is good money to be made, especially with exotics. Because the pools feature so much dead money thrown in by casual fans there is a decent overlay. The Kentucky Derby is the prime example.
This year I'm going to start the prep work a month in advance by isolating the top contenders and best "dark horses" before the prep races that start in earnest tomorrow with the Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Illinois Derby. By Sunday we'll have a clear idea of race favorites but I'm not expecting a lot of surprises tomorrow so this article should still be relevant.
The Wood should be a two horse race between ANY GIVEN SATURDAY and NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ. My preference is for the latter, which should devalue the chances of STREET SENSE (who beat the former by a nose) and throw the Derby wide open. Both these horses are lively contnders but seem exposed to me, and I'd be surprised if either won the big race in May.
The Santa Anita Derby is interesting with none of the top contenders in the field but plenty of second-tier Derby horses like SAM P, LIQUIDITY, and KING OF THE ROXY. One of these three could still come on a lot so we need to watch this prep race closely.
Right now the three horses I like the looks of are CURLIN, SCAT DADDY, and GREAT HUNTER. Curlin could well prove to be a phenom, and has the most upside of any three year old in the country. Todd Pletcher trains Scat Daddy and Pletcher is the best trainer in the business today. He should have a big say in the Derby result. Great Hunter cannot be ignored on form, but we'll see what he's made of in the Blue Grass Stakes.
If you want a great value futures bet I'd take Curlin before he wins the Arkansas Derby next week.
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