Author: The Mycapper Team - Thursday, August 23, 2007

August 23 - MasterBets is consistently the #1 handicapper on the Mycapper.com website and his documented MLB record this season is excellent once again: 102-65 for the season (free picks and premium picks combined); 20-10 for the month of August, and of course 4-0 last night.

We asked MasterBets to take us through the process of handicapping the MLB using last night's 4 pick sweep as the four examples...

Top Pick - Astros over the Nationals (Astros won 3-2): "Well the first thing we look at is the moneyline for the game. If you have a pitching mismatch, say Santana for the Twins at home against a rookie for the Rangers it is apparent to everyone, and the odds will be -250 making it poor value. This game had the right value proposition in that the Astros were -140 to win the game.

Houston and Washington are both poor teams this year. The Astros had, however, come into this game losing two in a row to the Nationals and both games at home. It is very tough for a road team to win three in a row when the two teams are of roughly equal ability, especially if they're both inconsistent. The starting pitching looked even on paper but in reality Williams is a far more experienced, cannier pitcher than Bacsik. Then as with all our picks we run it through our vast database, and here without going into too much detail it became clear that the Astros held a substantial edge."

Top Dog - Rangers over the Orioles (Rangers won 30-3): "If only they could all be like this game! We liked the Rangers a lot in this spot mainly because the starting pitching matchup was very favorable at the odds quoted. Gabbard has been fantastic for Texas since coming up and has stayed under the radar a bit because the Rangers are so poor. But the Orioles are also struggling mightily this season, and although Cabrera is an excellent starter they were totally the wrong price at -150 for this game. The matchups we analyzed really made it a lot closer than the line suggested, and there was little hesitation in picking the Rangers as the best underdog value on the card."

Free Pick - Pirates over the Rockies (Pirates won 11-2): "This was another underdog pick, and we explained why we liked the Pirates when we gave this one away to all Mycapper.com clients. Basically we expected Fogg to get pounded in this spot and that's exactly what happened. The starting pitching matchup was key here."

Road Warrior - Padres over the Mets (Padres won 7-5): "It was tough to go back to the Padres after losing on them the night before with a blown save in the bottom of the ninth. We thought they should have won that game and then to climb back on again you need good reason - but Peavy vs Lawrence is reason enough for us. You expect Peavy to leave that game with a 4 or 5 run lead and that's exactly what happened. Even though the Mets are at home and the Padres are priced correctly, there was little extra value taking them at -145, you have to expect San Diego to win this one behind their horse, especially with the bounce factor of the previous night's blown game."

Get MasterBets' TRIPLE PLAY WINNER for Thursday night as well as an NFL PRESEASON TOTALS PARLAY, only at Mycapper!

Related Articles:
- NCAA Pre-Season Top 20 Preview (Nos. 11-15)
- College Football Free Picks By Tom Stryker!
- Falcons Beat Bengals - MasterBets and Parsons Get the Cover
- NCAA Preseason Top 20 Preview (6-10)
- Free NFL Pick By Nick Parsons
- AFC West Preview By Ben Burns
- College Football - Most Improved Teams
- NFL Preseason Handicapping - Angry Coaches

FAVORITE SPORTSBOOKS

BODOG

SPORTSINTERACTION