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MasterBets Football Recap and Preview
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Author: MasterBets - 22 December 2011
December 22 - My clients and I have enjoyed an excellent two weeks of betting results, mainly in the NFL but also with some select College plays (football and basketball). With a slew of College Bowls coming up soon, as well as the end of the NFL regular season and then the playoffs, there is a lot of opportunity out there. Here is how I intend to approach the next five weeks leading up to the Super Bowl...
For College Bowls remember that underdogs tend to perform extremely well in specific spots. What we want to look out for is a situation exactly like the one that popped up yesterday in the Poinsettia Bowl. We have a minor bowl where the favorites would really like to be playing somewhere else (in TCU's case that would have been a BCS bowl). Note that TCU felt they could challenge for a national title at the outset of the year. Instead they wind up playing in a mid-week Bowl against LA Tech.
No offense to LA Tech, who are a decent team with a strong record. And that's what made the bet on LA Tech + the points a great play. They were pumped up to play in a bowl, so they kept it very close, and gave as good as they got. The final margin of victory of 7 points flattered TCU and was still an easy cover for myself and my clients.
The major bowl games will require a different set of handicapping tools to get right, and there are going to be some bowls where the favorite is simply too strong for the opponent, regardless of how the teams are feeling.
In the NFL we're going well, knock on wood, as the season gets down to crunch time. We have profited recently by attacking weak teams like the Rams (twice in less than two weeks!) and the Buccaneers, and also by betting on games when the line favors the pick. For instance I released the Bengals -6.5 points at the Rams on Tuesday and put down my $1000 that same day. The line closed at 7 but that was on Sunday. There was plenty of time to grab the crucial 0.5 point and turn a push into a big win.
Looking ahead I think the AFC's top teams are vulnerable and worth going against when they are in a trap spot (on the road at an NFC quality team say). I punished the Steelers when they were at the 49ers and earlier when the Ravens had to play at the Chargers there was great value on San Diego, even though they too are an inconsistent AFC team.
An NFC team will win it all this year. The Packers, Saints, and 49ers are the three strongest teams in the league. The AFC will send a deeply flawed team to the Super Bowl - regardless of whether it is the Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, or any team from the West.
Finally I would like to wish every Mycapper reader Happy Holidays and a wonderful New Year. I have many loyal clients who have purchased my picks for years now - please know that the website would not be possible without your support, and I truly hope that you all know that you are a VIP every time we exchange emails or you read my analysis.
Related Articles:
- College Basketball Preview - The Maui Invitational
- Free Breeders Cup Picks Available
- Pac 12 Betting Recap and News
- College Football - Pac 12 Notes
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