Author: Scott Spreitzer - Sunday, July 20, 2008
What are the main characteristics of the "super surgers" who close the season
very strong?
*PITCHING DEPTH
You just can't string together victories unless you have quality deep in your
starting rotation. Some teams are top heavy, with one or two great starters
followed by mediocrity or worse. A team that "surges" will win two thirds or
three fourths of its games over a sustained period. That doesn't happen by going
win-win-cross your fingers-loss-loss. Too many fans and wagerers look for teams
to get hot who just don't have the right kind of talent distribution. Believe it
or not, a team that's "pretty good" in all five spots (or at least four of the
five) is better positioned for a long winning surge.
I should also mention that bullpen quality is crucial too. Surging teams
typically have a set-up man and ace reliever they can rely on down the stretch.
The New York Yankees and Mariano Rivera have had some great second halves for
example.
To me, this is the number one qualifier. Remember, I'm not talking about high
end pitching. DEPTH is what matters here.
*CONSISTENT OFFENSE
It's easy to fall in love with slugging offenses that occasionally post huge
numbers. They look like superstars in those games where they happen to run into
a struggling pitcher, or weather conditions that favor home runs. This type of
team isn't consistent though. They alternate poor games with huge games. This
creates a great average, but a won-loss record that treads water. Think back to
the San Francisco Giants in Barry Bonds best seasons. They had the most dominant
hitter of the era, yet typically weren't in the playoff mix.
You want teams who get people on base and bring them around to score. That's why
on-base percentage is my favorite offensive stat. There's a strong correlation
to winning. Look for offenses that are going to post 4-5 runs most every time
they take the field. Combine that with pitching depth, and the pieces are in
place for a winning surge.
*HEALTH
You often hear announcers talk about teams suffering bad luck with injuries.
I've found that many ideal super-surge teams are those who were injured earlier
in the year, but are now healthy. The players have a sense of urgency because
they're making up for lost time. The betting markets are still pricing the team
based on those earlier performances. This is a great combination for the sharp
wagerer. Look for teams who used to be shorthanded but aren't any more.
*CHEMISTRY
This is one of the hardest things in sports to quantify. You know it when you
see it with your own eyes. It can be hard to find in the raw numbers. Well, you
probably watch a lot of games. Look for chemistry with your own eyes! Look for
enthusiastic teams who are playing like every game matters. Look for teamwork in
the field, particularly in the area of turning double plays. Look for offenses
that work together rather than sitting around waiting for home runs (this
typically goes hand in hand with the consistency issue I mentioned earlier).
Surging teams always have a great spirit about them. That spirit is evident very
early in the surge.
*AN "US AGAINST THE WORLD" MENTALITY
I've found that many surging teams are held together by a sense that they're not
getting enough respect. I think this is part of what slows down some first place
teams. They do get respect because they're in first place, so they lose a step
while stopping to smell the roses. Read postgame quotes from newspaper accounts,
and watch interviews on TV. If you hear the players talking about wanting to
prove a point, or being tired of hearing how great another team is, you may be
onto something very good. This is a great edge to look for in all sports,
particularly with underdogs.
I've got a few teams under the microscope for the second half of the 2008
season. I'm not going to mention them here because I plan on profiting from them
for the next several weeks. I'm confident that serious handicappers will be able
to use the guidelines I posted today to make a quality list of their own. Some
handicapping approaches help you find a winner that day. Others help you find
weeks, or even months of winners. You owe it to yourself to be on the lookout
for second half explosions in both the American and National Leagues. The reward
is substantial!
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