Author: Tom Stryker - Friday, January 19, 2007

Good Teams Technically Bounce Back

It doesn't matter what sport you handicap, good teams usually find a way to bounce back.

Phil Jackson, one of the greatest basketball coaches of all time, stressed that the most. After a defeat, he always challenged his teams to come back the next time out and take care of business. If you check Jackson's glory days with the Bulls and even today with the Lakers, you'll notice that his clubs rarely endured losing streaks. At least to me, that is the mark of a good team and even a possible champion.

With the idea of this "bounce back" theory in mind, I turned to my NBA database to see if the concept was profitable. It's a good thing I did. Take a look at what I discovered.

Since 1990, NBA home teams that own a won/loss percentage of .650 or better are a respectable 145-120 ATS for 54.7 percent provided they enter off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. Over the course of 265 games, this simple situation would have created a profit of $1,300 (with the vig) assuming you invested $110 to win $100 on each of these battles. This validates the idea I had about good teams bouncing back. After dropping two straight both on the floor and to the pointspread, better than average NBA teams respond.

There are a couple of tighteners to this system that really make it pop. By bringing in a division opponent and adding the motivational factor, this technical situation improves to a tremendous 48-28 ATS for 63.1 percent. Professional teams across the board pay special attention to division games. In this specific set, our "Class A" or "Class B" team rises to the challenge and excels.

We can improve our 48-28 ATS set to a blistering 38-16 ATS for 70.3 percent provided our host is rested and is running against a foe that owns a won/loss percentage of .315 or better. Good teams are able to regroup and focus a little better especially if they are lined up against an opponent that carries some type of a threat.

There is one final parameter that really makes this system profitable. With the last tightener in play and our host favored by -7 or more, this situation zips to a sweet 26-8 ATS for 76.4 percent. Don't be afraid to lay the lumber once in a while. Good teams that bounce back do so convincingly.

If you're reading this on Friday, January 19th, then make sure you take a look at San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans. The Spurs fit this system and all of its tighteners perfectly. There will be other plays in the future so hang on to this article and remember...good teams technically bounce back!

Best of luck always men. TS.

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