Author: Nick Parsons - Wednesday, August 15, 2007

A more and more popular wager over the last few years has been on season long team OVER/UNDER propositions in the NFL. Most gamblers hate "tying up" a portion of their bankroll for the year, in fact I used to be one of those people. But over the last few years I've completely changed my opinion on this matter.

It is my firm belief that if you do your homework, look at the schedule, at personnel and management changes, search for the best possible line, and take into consideration a few other factors, that there are great opportunities to find value on the posted numbers. The odds-makers are very sharp, of course, but if you take the time to dissect each team you'll find that they've made a few blatantly obvious errors. Here is one team proposition that I am going to hammer!

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6 Total Wins

The Browns haven't received as much off-season attention as they have this year since perhaps the Jim Brown-era. Admittedly, they put together a great draft, but will their luck on draft day pay immediate dividends?

Unfortunately the "Dog Pound" is going to have to wait a few more years for this lineup to form an identity and compete in the brutal AFC North. The most glaring factor that leaps out at me when I look at the '07/'08 Browns is their extremely difficult schedule. Let's break it down:

Week 1: @ Pittsburgh
Week 2: vs. Cincinnati
Week 3: @ Oakland
Week 4: vs. Baltimore
Week 5: @ New England
Week 6: vs. Miami
Week 7: @ St. Louis
Week 8: vs. Seattle
Week 9: @ Pittsburgh
Week 10: @ Baltimore
Week 11: vs. Houston
Week 12: @ Arizona
Week 13: @ NY Jets
Week 14: vs. Buffalo
Week 15: @ Cincinnati
Week 16: vs. San Francisco

When the odds-makers set the line at 6, they looked at a six specific weeks: Week 3 at Oakland, Week 6 vs. Miami, and Weeks 11, 12, 13 and 14. These are the games they feel that Cleveland has the biggest chances in gutting out wins. Most likely the Browns will be underdogs every other week (if not also in these six games that I've mentioned), even when they play at home. There's no guarantee they'll win even one of these matchups, however, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. 3-3

They play their archrival, Pittsburgh, twice. If you think the Browns have a chance against the Steelers because of the coaching change, you had better think again. Pittsburgh has something to prove this season, especially Roethlisberger. It?s scary how dominant the Steelers have been over the Browns the past few years; in their last 17 match-ups Cleveland is a pathetic 3-14 'straight up'! 0-2

The Browns also play the Ravens twice this year. Last season Cleveland lost both games against Baltimore, but they did manage to cover each time. However, I don't even expect them to have the same luck this year ATS. 0-2

It doesn't get any easier for Cleveland as they play the Bengals twice this season as well. Cincinnati is another, in a long line of teams, which has had success against the Browns. In their last 16 matchups, Cincinnati is 10-6; including going 2-0 last year with a 30-0 blowout win on November 26th '06. 0-2

Playing New England will be a scary proposition for any team this season. The Browns rarely play against the Pats, but when they do, they're horrible! The last three times these teams met was in '01, '03 and '04. The Patriots went 3-0 in those games. Vegas has the Patriots favored to win the Super Bowl this year. 0-1

Another team that Cleveland rarely plays is the St. Louis Rams, but whenever they do they're sure to shit the bed. Last year the Rams were 8-8, the Seahawks finished 9-7; it's no secret that Seattle and St. Louis will be duking it out again this season for the NFC West title. St. Louis is 2-0 the last two times they've played Cleveland. 0-1

The Seahawks fly into town in Week 8, and although they rarely play each other, since 2001 Cleveland is 0-2 against Seattle. As they'll be in a dogfight for the NFC West crown, expect the Seahawks to destroy the Brownies. 0-1

That leaves San Francisco in their final match-up of the regular season. The last time these teams met was in 2003. Cleveland won SU and ATS. However, if the 49'ers have anything to say about it, neither the Seahawks nor the Rams will be crowned in the NFC West. San Fran was without a doubt one of the biggest surprises last year and they are poised to make some noise this season. 0-1

No matter how you look at it, it's going to be another rebuilding/frustrating/difficult season for Cleveland. Looking at their offense we see that there is an immediate controversy at QB. To become the future for Cleveland Brady Quinn is going to need-playing time: so the question then becomes, "How long do you leave in Charlie Frye before giving the rookie a chance to develop?"

With four RB's competing for the top spot, including beleaguered veteran Jamal Lewis, the Browns offense will be inconsistent at best this season.

With no marked improvement on the defensive line or on special teams, the Browns are destined to repeat their 4-12 season of a year ago. Even if Cleveland manages to steal a couple of games, the best they'll do is 5-11 in the '07/'08 season.

I will be playing on a few other team Over/Under propositions this year, but the Browns will be my biggest wager. Cheers!

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- NFL Handicapping - Nick Parsons Latest Analysis
- NFL Analysis - Nick Parsons Looks At 0-2 Teams
- Free NFL Pick By Nick Parsons
- NFL Free Pick - Total Regular Season Wins (Part 2) By Nick Parsons

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