Author: Trey Johnson - Friday, September 08, 2006

So far in this series we have determined that college home teams and college favorites are a 50 percent proposition. We have also found out that NFL home teams don't produce the winner. That leaves us with NFL favorites. This has to be the one, right? NFL favorites will prove to be our winner.

Since 1980 favorites are 2886-3062-151 for 47 percent against the spread! So much for NFL favorites being the one! Ok, so overall they don't produce but there has to be a scenario that will give us the winner on a weekly basis. Let's dig a little deeper.

How about home favorites! That has to be our ticket to fame and fortune. Wrong! Home favorites are a lousy 2004-2088-100 for 47 percent ATS. Road favorites are even worse posting the winner at a solid 46 percent clip. So much for the NFL favorite!

Show me the money! It has to be out there somewhere doesn't it? Let's see if we can find it. You would think a double digit favorite in the NFL has a good shot of covering the spread. A team so superior to their opponent they earn a double digit point spread has to dominate the game. Nope, double digit favorites are a whopping 343-374-15 for 46 percent. That's not going to cut it.

So we ask again, where is the money? Favorites off a win, maybe? Nope, they are a poor 47 percent against the spread. How about favorites off a loss? Again, no! Favorites off a loss come in at 47 percent also.

I know! How about a little extra motivation? Favorites with revenge have to be our money maker. How about no! An NFL team with revenge does the same as every other situation. They are an inferior 47 percent against the spread.

As with college football things certainly don't look good for the favorite in the NFL, at least from a betting standpoint. Are there any situations favorites can be counted on to make money? Not that I've found.

Favorites of a win are 48 percent ATS. Favorites off back-to-back wins are 48 percent ATS and favorites off a double digit win come in at 47 percent. In fact every scenario I looked at produced the same results. NFL favorites just don't cover the spread.

Again there are exceptions to every rule. The only scenario that came close to producing money was favorites with rest. They cover the spread 50 percent of the time. Still not enough to write home about!

As tempting as it might be at times to play on that can't lose NFL favorite, remember it's a 47 percent proposition any way you look at it.

Related Articles:
- College Football Power Rankings
- NFL Handicapping Trends - Stats Versus Wins
- College Football Top 10 Teams Reviewed
- New NFL Head Coaches Report Card After Week 1
- The Reality Of College Football Home Field Advantage
- Handicapping The NFL - Home Field Advantage
- Baseball Handicapping - Review Of The NL Central
- MLB Handicapping - Analyzing The NL East

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