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NFL System Of The Week by Big Al
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Author: Big Al McMordie - Saturday, September 25, 2010
September 25 - Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, there have been more
'unders' than 'overs,' as 18 of the 32 games have gone 'under' the
total; 13 have gone 'over' the total; and one has pushed. Ten teams
have gone 'under' in each of the first two weeks (Baltimore, Buffalo,
Cleveland, Green Bay, Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, St.
Louis and Tampa Bay). And there are two match-ups in Week 3 between two
of these 10 teams: Pittsburgh travels to Tampa Bay, and Baltimore hosts
Cleveland.
When I reviewed the scores of those four teams' games, one thing
jumped out at me: each has played exceptionally low-scoring contests.
The Steelers defeated Atlanta 15-9 (24 total points), and Tennessee
19-11 (30 points). Tampa bested Cleveland 17-14 (31 points), and upset
Carolina 20-7 (27 points). Cleveland fell 17-14 to the Bucs (31
points), and was upset by the Chiefs 16-14 (30 points). Finally,
Baltimore eked out a 1-point win over the Jets, 10-9 (19 points), and
then stumbled in Cincy, 15-10 (25 points).
So, my first instinct was to open my database, and review what
happens when two teams, off very low-scoring games, play each other. Of
course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play the 'under' after
watching two teams play tight, defensive games the previous two weeks.
But, as we often discover, the knee-jerk reaction tends to be wrong.
And, here, it is as well. Indeed, when two NFL teams match-up after
each played two games that both produced less then 37 points, the 'over'
has cashed the ticket 57.1 percent of the time (88 wins, 66 losses, 2
pushes) since 1980. Thus, playing the 'over' in the Steelers/Bucs and
Ravens/Browns games would be a worthwhile venture.
Of course, 57.1 percent is perfectly fine -- especially if it keeps
us away from doing the OPPOSITE and playing the 'unders' (there, one
would be 66-88-2, which would be a "total" disaster). But we can
tighten our system up a little bit by focusing on games which involve
non-division games (division games have a tendency to go 'under' the
total much more than non-division games, perhaps due to the familiarity
of the teams). Then, our 88-66-2 system (playing on the 'over' in such
games) moves to 60-37-1 (61.9%). Just one of our two NFL games this
week is a non-division contest: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay.
Best of luck this weekend in College and Pro Football....Al McMordie.
Related Articles:
- College Football Handicapping - The Value In Home Dogs
- NFL Preseason Preview
- Week 2 NFL Preseason Review And A Look Ahead to Week 3
- NFL Preseason Betting Notes - Week 1
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