Author: MasterBets - Wednesday, September 12, 2007

September 12 - The first week of NFL action is behind us and a lot of the teams that lost came out of those initial games looking awful. For some the perception is worse than reality - the Saints, Bears, Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, and Cardinals all lost but they were tough road assignments and it is too early to start betting against them consistently until we have more data. However, there were some teams that gave notice of how bad they will be all season long...

I feel confident that if you did nothing else for the rest of the NFL season other than go against these teams, betting the same amount every time, that you would show a healthy profit at the end of the regular season, so here they are:

1. Cleveland Browns.

This was one of my strongest plays against for the week and they were duly obliterated by the Steelers. This was at home, and resulted in the starting QB being traded to Seattle. Unless Brady Quinn is the second coming this team cannot win 4 games SU this year, and even if he is the next great QB they'll still have a losing season. The Browns cannot cover a single-digit spread on the road based on this effort.

2. Atlanta Falcons.

They made the Vikings look good, which they are not, and they made the Vikings defense look exceptional, which it most certainly is not. The Falcons may play better at home, but really shape up to be a dreadful team this season, certainly worth playing against until further notice.

3. Oakland Raiders.

The only good aspect of this team was supposed to be the defense and that was shredded at home by the Lions. The Raiders scored points, but they played the Lions who have an awful defense, and they were at home. Oakland cannot be competitive if this is the best they can offer, and good teams will dismantle them and cover ATS in the process.

4. Kansas City Chiefs.

This was another easy pick for me in Week 1 because some people think the Chiefs can compete, which is not the case, and the line at the Texans was only -3 in favor of a much-improved home team. The Chiefs may play better at home, but this team is in a lot of trouble based on their first game, and the only good thing is that they get to play the Raiders (see above) twice.

5. New York Giants.

They conceded 45 points at the Cowboys, continuing their dismal defensive efforts dating back to the second half of last season. They also sustained several key injuries and I don't think people realize just how bad they are without those players, and even with them they're far from being an 8-8 team. Until Tom Coughlin is run out of the Big Apple this is a team to fade.

6. Tampa Bay Bucs.

They played hard in Seattle...for the first 10 minutes. Then they came back down to earth and got rolled. Garcia also took some big shots, and now that he is concussed (which takes quite a while to recover from) you can play against them whenever possible. Actually you could have played against them if Garcia was healthy. This was my top pick of Week 1 because the Bucs have very little ability to score points and their defense is a shadow of what it once was. The good news for this team is that it gets to play the Falcons twice.

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