Author: Tom Stryker - Friday, August 29, 2008

Handicapping the first few weeks of the college football season can be tricky. Unlike the Pros, the NCAA doesn't allow exhibition games. When a college team tees it up for the first time, surprises can be in store. Depending on the amount of returning starters, both in the trenches and at the skill positions, a team can look completely different than it did last season. In my 25-year career, I've managed to get out of the gate quickly on the college gridiron thanks in part to a handful of "Early Bird" systems that consistently win.

One area I like to focus on in September is REVENGE. During spring practices, in the weight room and even before the players report in August, teams know its opponents well in advance. To get them through those "blood, sweat and tears" times in the summer, athletes will use those bitter losses as motivation. Paybacks truly are a "you-know-what" and that fact is quickly displayed in the following Road Opening Revenge System.

Since 1980, PLAY ON any college road dog of +6 to pick in its first road game of the season if they are playing with revenge.

28 Year ATS Record = 84-47 ATS for 64.1 percent.

This Week's Play = SMU

If you think about this system for a second, it makes perfect sense. The general public is well aware of last year's results. Certainly, if our home team defeated this opponent last season and our host is installed at a cheap price (-6 to pick), it would be "automatic" for the novice to lay the lumber here. In his mind, all his team has to do is win this game by a touchdown. It's a piece of cake, right? Wrong! As you can plainly see, the last thing you want to do is lay points into this revenging road team!

There are a couple of tighteners to this system that really make it pop. First, if our guest does NOT enter with momentum off a straight up win, this situation skyrockets to a blistering 52-22 ATS for 70.2 percent. The Mustangs apply. Obviously, off a victory, we would lose line value in this revenge set. The oddsmaker would make adjustments to this number after watching our guest pick up a victory in its last game.

The last tightener doesn't apply to either team this week but it certainly could pop in the future. With our 52-22 ATS system in hand, we can improve that overall situation to 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent provided our "play on" guest is running with a game under its belt. Be sure to keep an eye on this money-making parameter in the month of September!

Last year, SMU (-6') got stunned at home by Rice losing by the score of 43-42. This Road Opening Revenge System supports Mustangs this week and they're worth a look plus the points. Be sure to check back next week for another college system. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

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