Sport: College FootballPick Selection: Ball State, Arizona Wildcats, and Minnesota Golden Gophers
Our 3 selections include Ball State, Arizona, and Minnesota.
Ball State -- At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals who fall into a 51-11 ATS momentum system of mine that involves playing on certain winning home dogs off a double-digit point spread win. Last week, Ball State opened up its 2006 season with a nice conference win over Eastern Michigan. Ball State won that game 38-20 as a 5 point fave, and now have been installed as a home dog against in-state rival Indiana. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS at home since 1998 off a double digit cover and will pull the mild upset here. Take the points.
Minnesota -- At 7 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus the points over California. Under Glen Mason, the Gophers are notoriously fast starters and poor finishers. They started 4-0 in 2002 but dropped their last four regular season games. In 2003, they opened up with six straight wins, but lost three of their last six games. In 2004, they won their 1st five games, but lost five of their last six, and then last year, they won their first 4, and then lost four of seven. Not surprisingly, against the spread, Minnesota also excels early on. In the first three games of the season, Minnesota is 11-0 ATS (with 2 games off the board) since 2002. Last week, they opened with a 44-0 rout at Kent State. And road dogs of less than 14 points are an unbelievable 21-0 ATS off a shutout win on the road. Finally, teams off wins of more than 42 points in Game 1 are 18-0 ATS provided they're not laying more than 14 points, and they covered by 17 or more in that Game 1 victory. Minnesota was favored by just 14 points in that 44-0 win, so they fall squarely into that 18-0 angle. I expect California to play better than they did last week at Tennessee, but that won't be enough to cover this point spread. Take the points.
Arizona -- At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats plus the points over LSU. Mike Stoops troops have had this game circled all summer, as they want to avenge the 59-13 home loss to LSU three years ago. That was the biggest home defeat for Arizona in almost 50 years, and the 3rd worst home loss ever -- behind a 75-0 drubbing by Michigan State in 1949 and a 65-12 loss to Colorado in 1958. Last week, Arizona got its season off a a decent start with a 16-13 win, as a 7-point favorite, over BYU. And double digit Game 2 road underdogs are a 76% play off a point spread loss as a home favorite in Game 1, including 80% ATS vs. a foe off a win. With LSU off a 45-3 win over Louisiana Lafayette, and a huge SEC game next week at top 5-ranked Auburn, the Tigers could get caught looking ahead, and will have a tough time covering this tariff. Take the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other 3-game card on Saturday which includes an 18-0 winner, or my 23-0 ATS Texas/Ohio State play on Saturday night.
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Handicappers
