Sport: College FootballPick Selection: #388 USC (-) & #394 CALIFORNIA (-)
#388 USC (-) over Oregon State at 8 PM EST
Off a pair of road games at Notre Dame and Oregon and with two more on foreign soil on deck at California and Arizona State, this home game against Oregon State is truly a "must-win" situation for USC. It certainly won't take much for the Men of Troy to get up for this battle. Last year, the Trojans (-11) strolled into Corvallis and left with a 33-31 loss in their pocket. Let's take a look inside the numbers.
Since 1980 revenging home teams in this schedule set where they are off two away and have two as a guest on deck are a profitable 35-17 ATS provided their opponent checks in off back-to-back straight up wins. Southern Cal fits this situation perfectly. Also, at home returning off two or more road games, Pete Carroll's troops are a sensational 30-6 SU and 22-14 ATS! If the Men of Troy are off a conference loss in this set, this amazing team trend explodes to a perfect 7-0 ATS!
When matched up against opponents that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .700, Oregon State has struggled to the tune of 6-15 SU and 7-13 ATS in its last 21 tries. In this role on the road, the Beavers dip to a nasty 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. Meanwhile, Southern Cal owns a nifty 10-3 SU and ATS record coming off a straight up loss. The Men of Troy need this one like blood and they'll get it. Take USC.
#394 CALIFORNIA (-) over Washington State at 10 PM EST
It's gut check time for the Golden Bears. Off three consecutive SU and ATS losses to Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State, California needs to dig deep and take care of business.
Knocking off Washington State won't be a problem for Jeff Tedford's troops. The Cougars have gotten pounded in their last five road games losing handily at Arizona State 47-14, Wisconsin 42-21, USC 47-14, Arizona 48-20 and at Oregon 53-7! That's an average loss of 32.2 points per game! To make matters worse, State is a soft 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in its last 18 on the Pac 10 road and a stiff 7-18 ATS coming off a straight up win!
There is a tremendous college football system that favors the Golden Bears here too. Since 1980, game nine or later conference home favorites priced at -14 or more are a solid 50-20 ATS provided they enter off a conference battle and their opponent arrives off a straight up underdog win. If our host did NOT lose by more than 14 points last and our "play against" team was priced as a pup of +10 or less last, this system explodes to a marvelous 36-7-3 ATS! Cal fits this general situation and the tightener perfectly!
With foreign soil being a problem for the Cougars and the Golden Bears champing at the bit off three devastating losses, this home game is exactly what the Bears need. Take California. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
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