Sport: College FootballPick Selection: Oregon @ Arizona: Wildcats
I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. Naturally, the betting public is going to love the Ducks in this matchup. Not only are the Ducks 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games (and 8-1 SU/ATS their last nine) but they're also playing with "revenge" as the Wildcats crushed them 37-10 at Eugene last season. They're also trying to ensure that they finish with a spot in the national title game. All that being said, there are several reasons why I favor the Wildcats. For starters, last season's victory gives them the confidence to know that they can compete with the Ducks and that they are capable of actually defeating them. Note that the Wildcats returned 17 starters from last year's team while the Ducks returned 14. Also, note that the Wildcats have also been the significantly healthier of the two teams throughout the season, and currently still are. Although this season has been disappointing, the Wildcats have been on a roll of their own and can still salvage a 500 record by winning their final two games - along with a likely bowl berth. In their most recent game, prior to last week's bye, the Wildcats knocked off UCLA by seven points. Prior to that, they went on the road and handled Washington. As Arizona coach Mike Stoops said: "We're gaining more confidence every week..." While the Wildcats have won three of five home games for the season, note that the two losses came by a combined three points. Its also worth mentioning that the Wildcats are 13-7-1 ATS over the past two seasons when listed as underdogs. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark in this series and a 2-0 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 point range. While Dennis Dixon and the Ducks' offense have deservedly received a lot of attention, note that its Arizona which continues to lead the Pac-10 in passing. The Wildcats headed into their off week eighth nationally with an average of 316 passing yards, including a total of 851 in the past two games. QB Willie Tuitama and his receivers are in sync, and the offensive line is doing a good job protecting. The defense can also be tough. In fact, they forced UCLA to five straight 3-and-outs in their last game. As a team, the Wildcats no longer have to worry about their coach losing his job - as there had been talk of that after the 2-6 start. Look for them to give the Ducks all they can handle tonight, continuing their improved recent play and their success in the underdog role. *Main Event
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