Sport: College FootballPick Selection: Texas Longhorns -6.5 -110
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns 3:30 PM ET
Texas Longhorns -6.5 -110
The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now after overcoming a three-touchdown deficit last Saturday at Oklahoma St. and outscoring the Cowboys 24-0 in the fourth quarter to pull out the improbable victory. Although Texas won't be a part of the national championship game and won't win the Big 12 championship unless things change drastically in the next three weeks, they aren't out of the running for one of the four at-large BCS bowl spots.
Texas Tech is coming off a laugher at Baylor but things get a bit more difficult here. The Red Raiders have not fared well against the Longhorns as Texas Tech last beat Texas in 2002 in a 42-38 win in Lubbock. Since then, Texas is 23-1 in games against in-state schools, the only loss coming last year to Texas A&M. Add to that, this is the Longhorns final home game of the season and that is where they have been at their best, going 13-1 in their last 14 home finales.
Oklahoma St. had a decent run defense as the Cowboys were only giving up 122 ypg on the ground but Texas ran for 307 yards. The threat of quarterback Colt McCoy running has changed the way defenses are playing Texas, which has meant more running lanes for tailback Jamaal Charles. The last two games, Charles has rushed for 470 yards and six touchdowns on 49 carries (9.6 ypc). His confidence is back, and he's hanging onto the football after four fumbles in three games at midseason.
Texas Tech is giving up 166.3 ypg on the ground which is 71st in the country. The Red Raiders had allowed at least 200 yards in three straight games but caught a break facing Baylor last week, who is 116th in the country in rushing offense. Defensively, Texas must hope that the injured are quick healers because it's a given that the Longhorns will need every available body against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech fields the most dynamic passing offense in the country.
The running game could be the difference here as it has been the last couple weks for Texas. Play on home favorites that are averaging between 190 and 230 ypg on the ground going up against a team that is allowing between 140 and 190 ypg on the ground after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being a whopping +23.6 ppg. Look for Texas to roll on Saturday. Play Texas Longhorns 1.5 Units
Matt Fargo easily won his NCAA Game of the Year with Toledo last Saturday and he has shown a profit of +8.1 Units since Saturday in NCAAF! Join Fargo again this Saturday as he has another major monster release with his WAC Game of the Year! This game is backed by a 28-3 ATS (90.3%) Power Situation! Guaranteed!
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