Tuesday **91.3% New Year's Top Play (Gator Bowl)** - 1/1/2008 1:00:00 PM

Virginia Cavaliers +6 -110

Why is Texas Tech favored here? The Red Raiders are unranked, lost three of their final five games on the season and went 2-4 in their six games against bowl teams. Apparently a season ending victory against Oklahoma, who lost quarterback Sam Bradford in that game, is giving them more credit they deserve. Don?t get me wrong, Texas Tech is a good team but it certainly does not deserve a New Year?s Day bowl game, let alone laying close to a touchdown in one.

Virginia was one of the bigger surprises in the nation, finishing 9-3 on the season and coming oh so close to a trip to the ACC Championship. This team was hammered in its first game at Wyoming but then responded with seven straight wins, five of which came by five points or less. Granted, a few bounces the other way could have meant an average or even below average season but this team found ways to win and the confidence, despite a season finale loss to Virginia Tech, is right were it needs to be.

One of the concerns is that Virginia does not have the offense to keep up with Texas Tech. While that is certainly a true statement, no one is declaring this game a shootout to begin with. The Red Raiders have struggled at times against good defenses as they were shut down by Missouri, and slowed by Colorado. Texas Tech had seven games of 500 or more yards of offense but five of those came against non-bowl teams. The lone two were against Oklahoma St. and Texas A&M, 103rd and 83rd respectively in total defense.

A great passing team against an average passing team would think to benefit the former but it is the latter that falls into a spectacular situation. Play against any team that averages between 7.5 and 8.3 ypa going up against a team that averages between 5.6 and 6.4 ypg after seven or more games, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 1992 including a 21-2 ATS mark (91.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. A great situation and a false favorite bring home the cash. Play Virginia Cavaliers 2.5 Units

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