Sport: College FootballPick Selection: See Writeup
Iowa St. Cyclones at Baylor Bears 7:00 PM ET
Baylor Bears -4.5 -110
Iowa St. has dropped three straight games and all three of those losses are tough ones to get over so the psyche of this team is not in good shape right now. The Cyclones had a 20-0 lead on Kansas last week before losing so it will be tough to get over that one. Prior to this defeat, it was an overtime loss against UNLV and a loss against rival Iowa. Iowa St. has now lost 13 straight road games and that includes nine straight Big XII losses on the road by an average of 20 ppg.
Baylor ran into a buzzsaw last week against Oklahoma as it was run over by 32 points and outgained by 325 total yards. The Sooners are doing that to everyone this season so the Bears are ready to move on. Prior to the game against Oklahoma, Baylor went 2-1 and could have been 3-0 if it caught some breaks in Connecticut. Most importantly, it outgained the opposition in all of those games which clearly shows that new head coach Art Briles is putting this team in the right direction.
Baylor still harbors visions of a bowl, and a loss to Iowa St. would all but wipe out any postseason chance. The Bears have the fifth toughest schedule in the country, and they?re getting ready to jump into the thickest part of it. Following the Iowa St. game, the Bears face Oklahoma St., Nebraska, Missouri and Texas in their next four games with the Missouri game being the only one at home so they know the importance. A win here and that could mean an upset in future weeks as the confidence builds back up.
Defensively the Cyclones are 11th in the Big 12, allowing 378.8 ypg and that includes 174.2 ypg on the ground. That is an issue. The Bears are 2nd in the Big 12 in rushing at 218 ypg thanks in large part to talented freshman quarterback Robert Griffin, also an all-American track star. He's started Baylor's last four games and ranks 30th nationally in total offense with an average of 253.4 ypg and he averages 87.2 ypg on the ground. Griffin committed to play for Houston and when Briles came here, Griffin followed.
That rushing game could play a huge role in the cover as Baylor is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games when it rushes for 5.5 or more ypc. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Iowa St. is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Baylor meanwhile is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Bears catch a great number here and get a solid win. Play Baylor Bears 2 Units
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs 3:30 PM ET
Georgia Bulldogs -12 -110
Georgia has had two weeks to stew about it blowout loss at the hands of Alabama and what better way to make up for it than to take it out on Tennessee. The same Tennessee team that embarrassed the Bulldogs last season 35-14 and outgained them 411-243. The Volunteers rushed for 190 yards, the most any team rushed for against Georgia all season and the 411 total yards allowed were the second highest. This is not a spot Tennessee should be looking for and in all honesty, we catch a great line.
The Volunteers are having a rough time this season. They are at 2-3 and they almost came very close to being 1-4 after sneaking past Northern Illinois last week. Tennessee has had only one complete game this season and that came against UAB, who is 1-5 with the only win coming against Alabama St. Tennessee was picked to finished middle of the pack in the SEC East so the struggles are not overly surprising. The anemic offense is surprising and it won?t get much better here.
Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer talked after the game against Northern Illinois that the offense is moving in the right direction. I believe he is just trying to get some positive thoughts into his player?s heads because the offense is going nowhere. The Volunteers put up 548 yards against UAB but since then have tallied 258, 191 and 225 yards the last three games. The 225 yards against Northern Illinois is inexcusable since a team from the SEC should be putting up more production than that against a team from the MAC.
Georgia is 22nd in the country in total defense which is very solid. The scoring defense was 18th prior to Alabama and is now 43rd so the Bulldogs want to make amends from that fall. The offense has been sound all season with excellent balance in the passing and rushing games and it will have to be at the top of its game as Tennessee has a very solid defense and has gotten better as each week passes. The problem is both road games resulted in losses and those came against offenses not even close to that of Georgia.
The recent scoring output for both sides puts Georgia into a fantastic situation. Play on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +20.9 ppg. If there is game Georgia rolls, this is it as it has a lot of anger to let out, both from last year and two weeks ago. Play Georgia Bulldogs 2 Units
Temple Owls at Central Michigan Chippewas 4:00 PM ET
Central Michigan Chippewas -7.5 -110
Central Michigan has had two weeks to get ready for this game and while normally getting ready for Temple may not get full attention, it does now. The Chippewas are 2-0 in the MAC with both of those wins coming by a combined five points so they want to put a complete game together here. Central Michigan has a big showdown with Western Michigan next week and the last thing it wants to do is go into that win with a loss. We will see a full effort from the Chippewas here.
The reason the Chippewas won?t be taking Temple lightly is because the Owls are coming off a big road win last week at Miami. Miami actually outgained the Owls 303-294 but it had four turnovers that led to two Temple touchdowns. The RedHawks also turned it over on downs twice in the second half and they finished with seven trips into Temple territory that resulted in no points. The Owls had only 11 first downs so the game played hardly reflects the 18-point victory.
That game made it six straight games this season that Temple has been outgained and it is no surprise that it lost four of those. Three losses came by a combined nine points so the Owls have been very competitive there is no doubt. The problem is that two of those came at home, one in a driving rainstorm against Connecticut, and the third came at Buffalo. Temple is getting outgained by an average of 114.2 ypg including a huge 76 ypg on the ground.
This line has actually come down from its opening and that can be traced to the Temple win plus the fact that Central Michigan has not looked that dominating. The good thing is that we have yet to see the best of the Chippewas who are much better than what we have seen. Let?s not forget this team brought back eight starters on an offense that finished 21st in total offense and 20th in scoring offense. Those rankings are 50th and 62nd last season so what we have here is value on a team that has not come close to peaking yet.
The Temple win not only gives us value in the line but it also sets up a great situation. Play against road underdogs that are coming off a conference win as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent coming off a conference win. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +21.5 ppg. The average line posted in those games was over two touchdowns so that is where even more line value comes in. Play Central Michigan Chippewas 2 Units
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