Sport: College FootballPick Selection: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
I'm taking the points with FAU. This game was supposed to be "the game" in the Sun Belt this season but it's lost some of it's appeal due to FAU coming in at 1-4. Make no mistake though, it's still extremely important within this conference. Last year, the Owls went into Troy as hefty underdogs and scored the upset. This year, the Owls are playing at home AND they suffered far fewer personnel losses from last year's team. While the Owls returned a whopping 18 starters, the Trojans lost their quarterback, their running back, their top two receivers AND two excellent cornerbacks. Additionally, Senior DE Kenny Mainor, one of the returning defensive stars, is out for the season. As a result of the way last season ended (FAU's victory at Troy and subsequent 44-27 bowl win) and because of Troy's personnel losses, it was the Owls who entered the year as the preseason conference favorites.
So, why are Trojans favored? That's largely due to this season's results. Troy comes in at 2-2 while FAU comes in at 1-4. However, a closer look at the Owls losses show that all four of them came on the road, three of them against teams from the Big 10 and Big 12. They did lose at Middle Tennessee State last week but outplayed the Blue Raiders in that game and the loss came on a Hail Mary on the final play and by only one point. A closer look shows that the Owls had an edge in first downs, total yards and time of possession. In other words, they should have (or at least could have) beaten the Blue Raiders. Note that in their only home game, the Owls beat UAB by double-digits, putting up 49 points in the process! As for Troy, one of it's wins came vs. Middle Tennessee State - and we already mentioned that the Owls could have easily beaten them too. The Trojans only other win came against 1AA Alcorn State - and FAU would have (obviously) won that one too. Like FAU, when stepping up in class to face the Big 10 and Big 12, Troy has been blown out. Therefore, although this season's records are a big part of the reason for the Trojans being favored, they really aren't as different as they appear. It's true that the Trojans have "revenge" on their minds after last year's upset. However, this game is arguably even bigger for the Owls, as their entire season is done if they lose here. Getting more than a field goal, I feel we're getting excellent value with the desperate home dog. *Best Bet
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