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NICK PARSONS*SEC GOM* 77% RUN ***SPECIAL **ON ESPN - 10/4/2008 6:00:00 PM
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Sport: College FootballPick Selection: AUB at vandy
Auburn ? The Tigers dominate this match-up last season and yet the line here is very manageable ? and has gotten smaller! After seeing the number up around a six earlier this week, patience has paid off as the line dropped all the way down to a 3.5 as of Friday! Keep in mind that Auburn was up 35-0 in last season?s game against Vandy before the Commodores finally got on the board late in the fourth quarter. The Tigers outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that game! Auburn?s domination of the Commodores is nothing new as they?ve won the last three games by an average of thirty points per game! Vandy has enjoyed success this season but it?s been due to a +9 turnover margin. If you look at the stats that the Commodores have produced this season you will see that they have not been as impressive as you would have expected considering their strong start to the season. Turnovers have played a key role for Vandy there is no doubt about that. Even though Vanderbilt did defeat South Carolina as a nine point home dog, the Commodores actually were outgained by a hundred yards in that game. Vandy?s QB Nickson is expected to play and that certainly could explain part of the line move on this game. However, despite Nickson being a dual threat thanks to his running ability, he and the Commodores still have a lot of work to do in the passing game! Speaking of the Vandy offense, nothing is likely to come easy against the rock solid defense of Auburn! The Tigers held Tennessee to just nine first downs and less than two hundred yards in last week?s game. It?s unlikely that Vanderbilt will enjoy any more success than that! Their offense has struggled this season and much of their scoring output has tied directly with their ability to generate turnovers. Vandy will struggle to enjoy that same ?turnover success? in this game as Auburn is built around a secure, ball-control offense and a stellar defense. The focus for Auburn is on limiting their own mistakes and simply wearing opponents down and frustrating opponents with their stifling defense! The one strike against Auburn here is the scheduling situation. They?re off back to back big games against LSU and Tennessee and they do have a rival, Arkansas, on deck. However, the Razorbacks are having an awful season and there is no way that Arkansas will overlook this tough game at Vandy. The Commodores have their full attention since Vanderbilt is already making some ?noise? in the SEC this season. Vandy is ranked and Auburn comes in well-prepped and fully focused for this big game on ESPN!
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