Sport: College HoopsPick Selection: Air Force Falcons -6.5 -105
DePaul Blue Demons at Air Force Falcons 9:00 PM ET
Air Force Falcons -6.5 -105
***NIT Game of the Week*** Air Force easily dispatched of Georgia as the Bulldogs were simply worn out and not because of a busy late season schedule. The Colorado Springs air has a lot to do with why the Falcons have had such great success at home, especially against non-conference competition that isn?t used to the thin air of 7,100 feet up. DePaul brings in a very veteran team but one thing experience cannot accomplish is conditioning. This line has already moved five points and probably will move more but it should not even matter.
The Blue Demons won at a very tough environment last time out in Manhattan but they benefitted from Kansas St. having no balance as the Wildcats had three players take 43 of their 53 total shots. It?s a quick turnaround for both teams but it is much more difficult for DePaul who much remain away from home while the Falcons have has had the luxury of staying put. The Blue Demons were respectable on the road this season, going 5-8 but Kansas St. and Villanova are the only two of the wins that came against teams making it to the postseason.
The Falcons have been close to unbeatable at Clune Arena the last four seasons. Including the final home game of the 2002-03 season, Air Force has won 56 of its last 58 home games. This includes a 27-game non-conference winning streak. 17 of the Falcons 25 victories this season have been by 10 points or more with 13 of its 14 non-conference victories being by double-digits. Air Force faced seven teams that made the NCAA Tournament, playing nine games overall against those squads and went 5-4 in those contests including a 4-1 mark against non-conference competition.
Playing teams with the better free throw shooting is always wise and the disparity here is rather huge. The Falcons are shooting 77.5 percent at home while the Blue Demons are hitting only 65.6 percent on the road. Air Force made 16 of 17 for 94.1 percent against Georgia and it has shot 77.3 percent or better in its last five wins with four of those being easy covers. Assist/turnover ratio is also heavily in favor of the Falcons who have a +0.73 ratio at home compared to a ratio of -0.55 for DePaul on the road.
Air Force has been playing with a stifling defense in this tournament and the offenses simply cannot keep up. Play against underdogs after two straight games of making 50 percent of their shots or better against opponent after two straight games of allowing a shooting percentage of 37 percent or less. This situation is 66-25-3 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +12.8 ppg in those 94 games. The thin air and the hot Falcons roll to New York. Play Air Force Falcons 2.5 Units
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