Sport: College HoopsPick Selection: Texas vs. Iowa State: Iowa State
I'm taking the points with IOWA STATE. The majority of the betting public will be quick to back the nationally ranked favorite here. However, I feel that this will be an extremely tough spot for the Longhorns, as they're coming off a big road win at Oklahoma and have a huge "Big Monday" showdown with Kansas on deck. That's followed by a string of other big games, including Baylor and a "revenge" game against Texas A&M. In other words, if they're ever going to look past a game, this will likely be the one. Despite the win at Oklahoma, the Longhorns are a very ordinary 3-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, note that the Longhorns are 1-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and that they're also just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they played a road game on a Saturday, including outright losses the last two times in that situation. The Cyclones, 4-0 SU in four home games on a Saturday this season, lost vs. Texas A&M in their last game here. However, they'd won nine straight here before that, including solid wins against the likes of Missouri and Oklahoma State already in 2008. They got leading scorer Wesley Johnson back in their last game and that will provide a major boost to the offense. With a game under his belt and a few more days of recovery time since then, Johnson should quickly start resembling the player that scored 20 or more points in four straight games before his injury. Even if that doesn't prove to be the case, the Cyclones are also a team that can dominate defensively. In fact, they allow just 56.8 points per game on this floor. The Cyclones hoped to finish in the top half of the Big 12 this year. In order to have any realistic shot of doing so, they need to score the upset this afternoon. The Longhorns won here in 2006. However, they're still just 2-5 at Hilton Coliseum and they've never won consecutive games here. The Cyclones have long been a profitable team when facing quality opposition, going 118-90 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record over the past decade. That includes an impressive 75-50 ATS (60%) mark when facing teams with a winning record after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Look for them to be at their best this afternoon, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of eight points or less. *Big 12 GOY
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