Sport: College HoopsPick Selection: (823) Tennessee Volunteers -2 -110
(823) Tennessee Volunteers at (824) Mississippi St. Bulldogs 7:00 PM ET
(823) Tennessee Volunteers -2 -110
***SEC Game of the Month*** I went against Mississippi St. last week against Mississippi and was completely on the wrong side as it shot an unheard of 56.7 percent from the field. The bulldogs followed that up with a huge clunker however. Mississippi St. fell 78-58 at Arkansas on Wednesday, becoming the last SEC team to lose a conference game and having its nine-game winning streak snapped. I?m here to tell you that first place teams and teams vying for championships do not lose conference games by 20 points.
The Bulldogs were able to corral the potent Mississippi offense last Saturday but this is a total different animal. Although both The Rebels and Volunteers are similar in numbers, Tennessee has a totally different style and one that will be tough for the Bulldogs defense to stop. Tennessee is 4-1 on the road this season, including conference wins at South Carolina and at Alabama on Tuesday. The Volunteers lone SEC defeat was at Kentucky and their only other loss came at a neutral site to 10th ranked Texas in Newark, NJ.
Mississippi St. leads the SEC in defensive scoring and shooting while the Volunteers are at the other end of the spectrum. Tennessee is ranked 1st in the SEC and 5th nationally in scoring with 85 ppg. The Volunteers have scored 80 or more points in 15 of their first 20 contests, including nine of the last 11. Here is the real clincher. Tennessee also leads the SEC and the nation with 19.9 apg but it is how they are distributed that makes it dangerous. Five players are averaging at least two assists per game for the year.
Tennessee is forcing its opponents to turn the ball over an average of 20.4 times per game which ranks in a tie for the third-most in the nation. The Volunteers are averaging 24.5 ppg off turnovers this season and their turnover margin of +7.35 easily leads the SEC. On offense, they have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.53 which is 2nd in the country. Defensively, the ratio is 0.69 and that drops to 0.65 in road games. They are +0.28 in ratio margin on the road.
I still am perplexed how Mississippi St. has put such a run together considering the fact it is shooting 60.7 percent from the free throw line and possesses an assist/turnover ratio of 0.85 and that has gotten even worse from last week. A team that shoots that poorly from the stripe combined with a ratio below the break even mark should not be 5-1 in the tough SEC but somehow it is. It caught up to the Bulldogs last time out and the relatively easy SEC slate to start out has helped.
Even though this is Tennessee coming to town, that road loss at Arkansas is a tough one to recover from and it is actually part of a solid situation. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road win against a conference rival going up against an opponent coming off a road loss scoring less than 60 points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Tennessee brings this team back down to earth similar to the way Arkansas did earlier in the week. Play Tennessee Volunteers 3 Units
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