Sport: College HoopsPick Selection: UNLV Running Rebels -1 -110
BYU Cougars vs. UNLV Running Rebels 7:00 PM ET
UNLV Running Rebels -1 -110
I will start off by saying that teams that get to host their conference tournaments, regular season champion or not, have a very unfair advantage against the rest of the league. The Rebels are once again hosting the MWC Tournament and even though the house isn?t packed with UNLV fans, the majority of them are there and that is huge edge. My belief is that all tournaments should be played on a neutral floor and if it needs to go to a certain school, it should go to the regular season champion as they more than earned it.
That?s over and as unfair as it is, I?m backing the Rebels here. UNLV is 18-2 this season at the Thomas & Mack Center and the Rebels have won 23 straight home games against league opponents, including last season?s run to the conference tournament title. This includes a demolishing of BYU by 29 points and the Cougars got their revenge in their home meeting, taking out the Rebels by 26 points. Revenge is out the window here as motivation on both sides will be high.
There are three key statistics that are extremely important this time of year and those are free throw shooting, rebounding and assist/turnover ratio. The first is obviously while the latter two either add to or subtract from the number of possessions in a game and in the postseason, every possession counts in most cases. UNLV has a clear edge in free throw shooting, hitting 74.5 percent from the stripe compared to 65.6 percent for the Cougars. That is a fairly wide gap that definitely comes into play.
The Rebels have the edge in assist/turnover ratio as well. They have a ratio of 1.41 which is tied for 5th best in the entire nation. That goes up to an incredible 1.67 in home games and UNLV has a ratio margin of +0.99 in home games. The Cougars come in with a solid ratio 0f 1.21 but like UNLV, it is much better at home. For BYU, the ratio drops to 1.02 away from home and the margin is only +0.05. The Cougars have the edge in rebounding but UNLV has shown improvement and that gap shrinks in home/road comparisons.
Take BYU out of BYU and it turns into a team that is not nearly as strong. The Cougars are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams that have won 60% or more of their home games. UNLV is now 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last two seasons and also 7-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last two seasons. Playing elite teams is no issue as the Rebels are 22-9 ATS against teams that are outscoring their opponents by four or more ppg over the last two seasons. Play UNLV Running Rebels 5 Units
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