Sport: College HoopsPick Selection: Marquette Golden Eagles +1 -110
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9:20 PM ET
Marquette Golden Eagles +1 -110
Marquette split its series with the third-seeded Irish, winning 92-66 in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 and losing 86-83 in South Bend, Ind., on Feb. 9. That home win was impressive as it outshot the Irish 46.6 percent to 39.7 percent including a shooting margin of +28.9 percent from long range. In the second meeting, the Golden Eagles actually outshot Notre Dame again but the difference was free throws as Notre Dame went 24-31 compared to 5-8 for Marquette. The Irish won?t have that same home court edge here.
The Golden Eagles pulled away late last night and come into this one with some good momentum. Marquette overcame a horrid 34.4 percent shooting night by holding Seton Hall to 33.9 percent, and by pulling down a season-high 56 rebounds, including 25 on the offensive end. Notre Dame is one of the best rebounding teams around so the Golden Eagles will need another big effort on the boards. However, in that 26-point home win over the Irish, they were outrebounded by eight so the winner on the glass didn?t matter.
Take Notre Dame out of Notre Dame and it becomes a very average team. The Irish went 18-0 at home but just 6-6 on the road and in neutral court games. The road wins all came against teams that are not going to the Big Dance with the lone exception possibly Villanova if it can make more of a run following its win yesterday against Syracuse. So the fact that Notre Dame beat no one on the road and its closest home win came against Marquette tells us one thing and that is that an early round exit is possible for a fraud.
One number that jumps out is how good Notre Dame is at taking care of the ball as proven by its 1.46 assist/turnover ratio. And another number that jumps out is that this ratio drops to 1.14 in road games while the defense allows a ratio of 1.43. Conversely, Marquette is +0.23 in ratio margin in road games. The Irish are allowing 78.85 ppg in road games this season so any offensive problem Marquette had last night will be turned around here.
I already hinted on the Notre Dame strength on the boards but that is part of a contrarian situation going against the Irish. Play against neutral court teams that shoot 36.5 percent or better from long range and are +6 rpg or better in rebounding margin going up against a team that shoots between 32 and 36.5 percent from long range and +/-3 rpg in rebounding margin. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last five seasons. This line is as low as it is for a reason. Play Marquette Golden Eagles 1 Unit
Matt Fargo has had his ups and downs since the postseason started and after the downs, he is ready to bounce back up! The tournament action continues on Thursday and the Best Bet comes from the SEC! It has been a difficult couple of days with some last minute losses but this one is over early as the SEC Tournament Game of the Year is backed by 50-10 ATS (83.3%) Team Angles! Guaranteed!
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