Monday **69.5% MLB Underdog of the Week** - 7/23/2007 9:05:00 PM

San Diego Padres (Maddux) +126

San Diego got thumped in its last three games against the Phillies over the weekend so a trip away from home could be the cure. The Padres are 5-0 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and with a 25-20 record away from home on the season, they are in great shape to continue that. The Rockies were having great success before the All-Star break at home with 14 wins in 17 games but a long roadtrip starting the second half killed all of that Coors Field momentum.

Greg Maddux did not receive a decision in his last outing against the Mets as he went five innings and allowed no runs, snapping a three-game losing skid. He has now gone four straight outings without a quality appearance but this was his best effort of the bunch so things are going the right way. Prior to this, he put together six straight quality starts including four straight on the road. The road has been better as Maddux has a 3.60 ERA in his last five road starts after putting up a 6.00 ERA in his first five away from home.

Jeff Francis is struggling and could be in for more here. Francis has struggled with his fastball command of late and it has hurt him as he has allowed six runs in three of his last five outings after allowing that many only twice in his first 15 starts. He has faced the Padres once and it was one of his worst starts as he allowed six runs on a season high 13 hits. The Padres offense has been woeful at times but one thing they do well is hit lefties on the road. They are batting .272 and are 18-12 against lefty starters on the season.

The Rockies are 1-6 in Francis' last seven starts against the Padres. A decent starter and an average offense seem to be a great combination as San Diego falls into a solid situation. Play on any National League team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or less on the season with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season. This situation is 41-18 against the moneyline (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. The Padres get out of their funk on Monday with a solid win. Play San Diego Padres 2.5 Units

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