Sport: MLBPick Selection: See Writeup
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox 7:05 PM ET
Texas Rangers (McCarthy) +150
Texas picked up its second straight win over Boston on Sunday and looks to take the four-game set tonight and even up the 10-game season series. The Rangers are in their best stretch of the season as they have won 11 of their last 16 games and actually finished June with a winning record of 14-12. July got off to a good start, just the opposite for the Red Sox. Boston is in a slump as it has lost six of its last eight games and home field has not been an edge as it has gone just 6-7 in its last 13 games at Fenway.
One of the most improved pitchers around and easily the most improved on the team has been Brandon McCarthy. He started the season with a 9.90 ERA through his first five starts and he has taken four runs off that since, allowing one run or less on four of his last six starts. This will be his first start after coming off the disabled list with a blister on his pitching middle finger. That is never something good to hear but the DL stint was done to assure it healed properly.
Kason Gabbard gets the call for Boston in what will be his second start since getting recalled from AAA and his thirds start on the year overall. He allowed four runs and six hits in 3.1 innings, the shortest start of the season for a Boston pitcher. Gabbard also walked six and hit a batter as he struggled with his control. Right-handed hitters have reached against him 47.2 percent of the time in his two starts, compared to 42.9 by lefties. The Rangers have won six of their last 11 against lefty starters.
Even though McCarthy has not pitched since June 9th, he is part of a situation based on his control which has improved immensely over his second half run. Play on road underdogs with a moneyline of +125 or more with a starting pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing against an opponent with a starting pitcher who walked five or more last outing. This situation is 41-24 against the moneyline (63.1 percent) since 1997. The momentum is all over Texas right now and it carries it to another win. Play Texas Rangers 2 Units
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals 7:05 PM ET
Washington Nationals (Simontacchi) +143
Washington snapped a five-game losing streak with a win at Pittsburgh on Sunday and now head home where it has been playing much better. The Nationals are 12-13 at home in their last 25 games which is a significant improvement from their 4-10 start on the season. The Cubs have won seven of their last eight games which is their best run of the season. After starting 8-5 on the road, they have gone 12-14 in their last 26 roadies and have lost five straight at Washington in this series.
It has been a long season for the Nationals but one thing they have had success at is facing left-handed pitching. They are 10-11 against left-handed starters and face off against a struggling Ted Lilly. After posting a 2.69 ERA through his first nine starts, he has put up a 6.16 ERA in his seven starts since then. This included four straight non-quality outings on the road where his season ERA has ballooned to 5.30. In seven night starts, he has a 5.59 ERA and 1.35 ratio.
The overall numbers look very ugly for Jason Simontacchi but most of the damage came in one outing against the Tigers as he allowed 10 runs in just three innings of work. Taking that out, his ERA drops from 5.81 to a more respectable 4.47 and he responded from that Detroit game with a solid effort last time out. He pitched six strong innings against Cleveland, allowing only one run on four hits and a walk. He has allowed three runs or less in half of his 10 starts.
Washington is getting a great price at home and it falls into a very solid underdog situation. Play on National League home underdogs with a moneyline of +125 or more with a starting pitcher with good control that tosses 1.75 or fewer walks per game going up against an opponent with a st
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