Thursday **70.2% MLB Total of the Month** - 7/26/2007 7:05:00 PM

Over 10.5 Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians +100

Back-to-back games with a 1-0 final score have shown that pitching has been the story but that will all change here. Tonight it is lefty against lefty and both offenses have prospered against southpaws this season as Boston is hitting .280 while the Indians are hitting .272. Before this series started, the bats were alive for both teams and taking a couple days off means a productive night is on tap. The Red Sox were on a 12-4 over run while Cleveland was on a 9-5-1 over run.

Cliff Lee has struggled mightily over his last three starts as he has given up 19 runs while posting a 10.69 ERA. This does not help things when the potent Boston lineup has been held in check over the last two games and it will be ready to explode here. The over is 23-8-4 in Lee's last 35 starts against a team with a winning record and the over is 16-5-2 in his last 23 home starts. With Boston coming off a shutout, Lee is in trouble there as the over is 9-1-1 when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.

Kason Gabbard has been just the opposite with three consecutive quality starts, the last two coming at home. He has posted a 5.59 ERA in his two road outings on the season and while most of that damage was done in Seattle in his first road start, facing a tough Indians offense is going to be a challenge. Overall with the Red Sox, he is 0-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in five road starts. The Indians are hitting .278 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games.

Play over on home teams where team's hitters strike out seven or more times per game on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or less over his last three starts. This situation is 37-14 over (72.5%) over the last five seasons. Also, play over on road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters in each of his last two outings. This situation is 83-37 over (69.2%) over the last five seasons. Play Over Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians 3 Units

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