Thursday **68.5% Underdog of the Week** - 8/30/2007 7:05:00 PM

Cincinnati Reds (Belisle) +112

After getting swept by the Pirates on Tuesday, the Reds got a gem of a performance from Aaron Harang last night in an 8-0 victory. The win extended Cincinnati?s current run to 16-8 over its last 24 games including a 7-4 mark on the road. Look for the Reds to continue the momentum as the Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Despite that doubleheader sweep two nights ago, the Reds are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.

It has been a very average season for Matt Belisle as he has been inconsistent for the most part but he is one of those rare starters that succeed more on the road. He is 5-1 with a 4.46 ERA in 11 road outings compared to 2-7 with a 6.26 ERA in his 13 home starts. His last start should have been quality but he had trouble in the eighth inning as he surrendered three runs against the Marlins. He has faced the Pirates three times this season and has gone 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP covering 21 innings.

Matt Morris has put together two straight quality starts after going eight straight games without accomplishing that. The problem is that both of those starts came on the road and he is now back home where he has struggled since coming over from San Francisco. He has a 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his two starts at PNC Park with one of those poor performances coming against these same Reds. In two starts against the Reds this season, Morris is 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA.

Belisle has shown some good signs and even though his overall numbers are sketchy, he helps the Reds in a solid situation. Play against all National League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are hitting .269 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.45 to 1.55 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 or worse on the year. This situation is 37-17 against the moneyline (68.5 percent) since 1997. The Reds take it again on Thursday. Play Cincinnati Reds 2.5 units

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