Friday **67.9% Underdog Game of the Week** - 8/24/2007 8:10:00 PM

St. Louis Cardinals (Wells) +127

***Underdog Game of the Week*** The Cardinals are making a run at the National League Central despite still being under .500 on the season. They are coming off a loss to the Marlins on Thursday but they have been playing very well, going 10-4 over their last 14 games. The Braves have dropped three straight and six of their last eight. This is a great spot for St. Louis as the Cardinals are 12-4 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record while going 5-2 in their last seven games as an underdog.

Kip Wells has completely turned his season around. He had a 6.93 ERA through June 14th but his ERA has dropped considerably as he has posted a 2.91 ERA since then which includes quality starts in five of his last six outings. His home runs and walks are down, while his groundball/flyball ratio is way up. He did allow two dingers in his last start but they were his first given up in his last 14 appearances. The Braves are 2-5 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter.

John Smoltz is coming off one of his better efforts of late and despite seven quality starts in his last eight outings, Atlanta has gone just 3-5 in those games including a 1-3 record on the road. Smoltz threw 118 pitches in his last outings, his most since April and that sort of pitch count can be problematic this late in the season especially with a pitcher of Smoltz? age. Atlanta has averaged just three rpg in those road games. The Braves are 1-5 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.

The overall season struggles of Wells actually put the Cardinals into a great underdog situation. Play against all National League teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg and with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 or more on the season. This situation is 38-18 against the moneyline (67.9 percent) since 1997 while picking up close to 27 units over those 56 games. Play St. Louis Cardinals 2.5 Units

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