Fargo's ***MLB TOP PLAY*** N.L. Game of the Week - 5/13/2008 7:05:00 PM

Florida Marlins (Hendrickson) +130

***MLB TOP PLAY*** N.L. Game of the Week Despite a win last night, I am not sold on the Reds, especially at this price. The Marlins are 7-1 over their last eight games and are still sitting in first place in the National League East. Florida nearly pulled it out last night against Aaron Harang and is getting another very favorable line here in a great go against spot as explained later. The Marlins are now 11-6 away from home which is still the best road record in baseball. The winning streak was halted last night but a new one begins tonight.

The Reds have lost eight of their last 12 games and playing at home isn?t necessarily a good thing as they are 5-7 in their last 12 at home. Both the offense and the pitching have been inconsistent and that does not make a favorable combination. A win last night can provide some confidence but it should be noted that the Reds have not won back-to-back games since the end of April, going 0-4 in their last four games following a win. They were outscored 30-11 in those four games.

The go against spot referred to earlier is to go against Edinson Volquez. This kid has been lights out for Cincinnati as he has allowed one run or fewer in all seven of his starts. The last four outings have all been quality starts and he is ready to finally get busted around. One key number to look at is his WHIP. He has an ERA of 1.06 but his ratio is at 1.23 and when that is higher than his ERA, it is a sign of previous good fortune. He has walked 19 batters over his last five starts including six hitters last time out.

Florida counters with Mark Hendrickson who is quietly having a solid season. He has a 3.56 ERA on the year while going 5-1 in his eight starts. He has allowed three runs or fewer in his last seven starts and taking away his first outing against the Mets where he gave up six earned runs and his ERA drops from 3.56 to 2.72. Cincinnati is just 4-8 on the season against left-handed starters including losses in four straight by a combined score of 43-17. Play Florida Marlins 2.5 Units

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