Sport: MLBPick Selection: COLORADO
I'm laying the price with COLORADO. The Dodgers jumped out to an 8-0 first inning lead yesterday and cruised to an easy victory. The Rockies should have a significant advantage this evening though and I expect them to serve up some immediate payback. That's because Jimenez has been downright dominant at home. Indeed, in 10 starts here he has a stellar 2.80 ERA and 1.150 WHIP. That includes an outstanding 2.11 ERA his last three starts here. In fact, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 16 of his last 17 home starts, allowing just four in the 'other' one. Not surprisingly, the Rockies are 3-0 his last three home starts and 5-1 the last six. Overall, regardless of venue, Jimenez has allowed four earned runs or less in 10 straight starts, allowing just 14 combined runs in the less seven of those.
Jimenez is expected to be matched up against Clayton Kershaw, who hasn't started since July 1. The Dodgers' young southpaw was sent down to Double-A Jacksonville directly after that start. In 38 big league innings, Kershaw was 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA. He pitched six innings in his first start and never lasted that long again in any of his other seven starts. One of his two losses came vs. Colorado, so the Rockies will already be somewhat familiar with him. Kershaw lasted just five innings in that start. He was fortunate to only give up two runs, as he allowed nine baserunners, which translates to an awful 1.80 WHIP. He'll face a Colorado lineup which has enjoyed plenty of success against southpaws here at home. In fact, despite yesterday's loss, the Rockies are 9-3 the last 12 times that they faced a left-handed starter here at home. The Rockies entered yesterday's game averaging 5.5 runs per game at home (.284 average) and 5.4 runs (.277 average) per game against southpaws. That compares very favorably to what the Dodgers have done vs. right-handers and/or on the road. Prior to yesterday's explosion, LA was averaging just 4.5 runs on the road with a .259 average and an awful 3.7 runs (.246 average!) vs. right-handed starters.
The Rockies have been a much better team at home for years and that's been the case again this season. They've had success as favorites in this range too, going 6-2 (+2.8) when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Despite yesterday's setback, the Rockies are still a healthy 7-3 the last 10 times they were a host in this series. They're also 2-0 in Jimenez's two career home starts vs. the Dodgers. In those games, both of which came last season, Jimenez allowed three earned runs through 6 1/3 innings and two earned runs through six complete innings. The Rockies provided him with 18 runs of support too, scoring nine in each of those games. Behind another strong start from Jimenez, look for the Rockies to even up the series. *Personal Favorite
Note: There was originally some talk that journeyman Jason Johnson, who has spent most of the season at AAA Las Vegas, might get the start. Either way, whether or Kershaw or Johnson, the Rockies are still a play. Johnson had fairly solid numbers at Triple-A. However, there's a big difference between Las Vegas and Coors Field. You may recall Johnson, as he's been around for a long time (1997). He was last in the big leagues in 2006 where he split time between Cleveland, Boston and Cincinnati. It didn't much matter where he pitched though, as he was terrible everywhere. Overall, he was 3-12 with an ugly 6.10 ERA. Looking back further and we find that he hasn't had a winning season since 1999, when he went 8-7. Overall, he's more than 40 games below .500 for his career, going 55-98 with a 4.98 ERA! His teams are just 2-13 his last 15 big league starts!
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