Sport: MLBPick Selection: UNDER
I'm playing on the Yankees and Angels to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have found their way above the posted total but I'm expecting the pitchers to steal the spotlight this afternoon. The Yankees have sent Ian Kennedy and Dan Giese to the mound in the first two games. Both are right-handers and neither are exactly household names. Giese pitched well. Kennedy did not. This afternoon, veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte gets the call though and, despite a couple of shaky starts recently, he's been very kind to 'under' bettors this season. He'll face another southpaw, Joe Saunders, who's been extremely tough all year. Let's take a closer look.
It's true that Pettitte struggled his last two starts. Two starts ago, these same Angels roughed him up and last time out, he struggled at Texas. In his defense, almost everyone has struggled at Texas though, so there's no real shame in that. Pettitte is a bigtime competitor though and he knows the importance of this game and also how important he is to his team, particularly with Wang, Chamberlain and Hughes on the disabled list. After taking the loss at Texas, he was quoted as saying: "I expect so much out of myself, and that?s why I'm so disappointed tonight...It's my job to make sure I take us deep in the game. I take a lot of pride in doing that, and it's just extremely disappointing when you're not able to do it." That sounds very much like a man who is determined to bounce back with a big game and I look for him to do so this afternoon. Despite the loss at Texas, Pettitte still has a solid 3.87 ERA in his 12 road starts this season, nine of which have fallen below the number. Overall, the UNDER is a highly profitable 17-7 in his 24 starts. He last faced the Angels here at LA last August and was very sharp in that game. Indeed, he allowed just one run and five hits through seven innings in that outing. Prior to that, his most recent road start vs. the Angels came way back in 2003. He was also very sharp in that game, allowing two runs through eight complete innings, en route to a 6-2 Yankees victory. In those two starts, he had 15 combined K's to just two walks.
Saunders goes for the Angels and he's been excellent all season. In fact, he's 14-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.165 WHIP. Last time out, facing a Baltimore team that has been swinging the bats well of late, he allowed one run through six innings. In his previous start, he went into Boston and limited the defending champs to five hits and two runs, also lasting six innings. While he hasn't fared too well vs. the Yankees in two career starts (was solid in one start but got rocked in the other) he hasn't faced them for a couple of seasons. That should work to his advantage here - and he's also a better pitcher now than he was then. Saunders will face a Yankee lineup which entered the weekend averaging five runs vs. right-handers but just 4.4 vs. left-handers. The Angels southpaw has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts now, recording a 2.95 ERA during that stretch.
Despite yesterday's game finishing above the total (score was 0-0 after five innings and 2-1 entering the 7th) the UNDER is still a healthy 25-13-1 when the Yankees have played during the afternoon this season. Note that Pettitte's ERA is nearly a run lower in his daytime starts than it is at night. While the Yankees have seen the UNDER go 20-13-1 in 34 games vs. southpaw starters, the Angels have seen the UNDER go 19-8-2 when they've faced a left-handed starter. That's a combined mark of 39-21-3, which is a sizzling 65%, excluding the 'pushes.' Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *AL Total of the Month
Note: Line is currently 9 but may climb to 9.5. It may be wise to wait and see if the 9.5 becomes available, which is what I personally will be doing.
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Handicappers
