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***6-0 TOTALS RUN CONTINUES*** Burns' NL TOW - DAY - 8/17/2008 2:05:00 PM
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Sport: MLBPick Selection: UNDER
I'm playing on the Diamondbacks and Astros to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. We should see some much better pitching this afternoon though. They're starting to refer to Randy Johnson as "The Big Unit" again these days. That's because the 6-foot-10 southpaw has seemingly turned back the clock about 10 years. Note that Johnson has a 3.60 ERA during the day and a 3.18 ERA on the road. That's significantly better than his 5.26 ERA at home and 4.50 ERA underneath the lights. He's been dominant no matter where or when he's pitched recently though. Over his last five starts, Johnson has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That's a 1.08 ERA! Not surprisingly, four of those five games, including each of the last three, stayed below the number. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 11-5 in Johnson's last 16 starts. The last time that Johnson pitched here in Houston was way back in 2002. He was matched up against Miller in that game yet there was an over/under line of 7.5. Today, he's matched up against Oswalt yet the total is higher. We've already seen that Johnson is in great current form. Additionally, Oswalt is better than Miller is/was. By the way, Johnson tossed eight scoreless innings in that game.
Oswalt comes off a solid start which saw him outduel Lincecum. He allowed three runs through seven complete innings. He was even better than that in his previous start, allowing just one earned run through seven complete innings. Looking back further and we find that he has now allowed four earned runs or less in 12 straight starts! It's also worth noting that Oswalt has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Arizona. In fact, he's 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Diamondbacks.
While the Astros' last three games have all finished above the total, it's worth noting that all three of those games came against right-handed starters. Looking at their last three games against southpaw starters and we find that all three of those games fell beneath the number. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 8-2 the last 10 times that Houston faced a left-hander. Look for those numbers to improve this afternoon as the Oswalt/Johnson clash proves to be a good one. *NL Total of the Week
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