Monday's 2-Unit **76.6% ATS NBA Winner** - 2/5/2007 9:00:00 PM

Denver Nuggets +8 -103

You look at what Phoenix has done this season and it truly has been a special season but there is one thing that sticks out that is hard not to overlook. The Suns are 23-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16 but just 14-10 against teams that are 16th or better. Sure, it?s a winning record but it is nothing to get overjoyed about. They actually have a losing record against the league?s top 10 and although Denver isn?t there, it is very close at number 12.

Denver will likely be without Allen Iverson again on Monday but it will not be a huge loss as it is a below average 9-13 since he came over after being 14-9 at the time of the trade. His presence in the lineup is big and the Nuggets are more dangerous with him in it but the return of Carmello Anthony is bigger despite the Nuggets going 3-5 in his eight games since coming back. Denver does have the offense that can keep up with Phoenix as it is 3rd in the NBA with 105.3 ppg and it averages an NBA-high 84.3 shots per game

The Nuggets have dropped five of six but couple that with the Suns recent success and they are set up by two very profitable situations. First, play against road favorites that have won 20 or more of their last 25 games, a team winning 75 percent or more of its games playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 5 seasons with the average point differential being +0.8 ppg in favor of the home team.

Denver has not covered a game in six straight and that sets up a bounce situation. Play on any team after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, a winning team playing another winning team. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 5 seasons with the average point differential being +4.2 ppg in favor of the play on team. This one has won in 13 of the last 15 instances with 11 of those teams winning the game outright. Denver hangs tight at home. Play Denver Nuggets 2 Units

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