Sport: NBAPick Selection: ORLANDO
I'm taking the points with ORLANDO. I successfully played on the Pistons in Game 4. In my analysis of that game, I mentioned that I thought too much was being made of homecourt in this series, due to the success of the home team in the first three games and in the playoffs in general, while also noting that the Magic were the only team in the entire league that was actually better on the road than they were at home. Homecourt didn't prove to make much of a difference in that game, as the Pistons rallied from a large deficit to stun the Orlando fans with a 90-89 victory. I won't be at all surprised if tonight's game comes down to the wire once again and therefore feel that the line is extremely generous.
Despite the Game 3 result, the Pistons are still just 18-25-6 ATS the past dozen years when leading in a playoff series. More recently, we find the Pistons at just 6-13 ATS the last 19 times they were coming off a SU win in a game in which they were listed as underdogs including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. It should be noted that at this time, its still uncertain whether or not Billups will play. However, even if he plays, he can't be expected to be at 100%.
Despite dropping the first two games here, the Magic are still 28-17 SU/ATS on the road for the season, including a 103-85 win (as a +6.5 point underdog) here in February. Including that result, the Magic are an impressive 17-9 ATS as underdogs this season. They're also 26-10 ATS on the season when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting, including a profitable 11-3 ATS when facing an opponent which defeated them at Orlando in the previous meeting. Additionally, they're a healthy 12-5 ATS this season when coming off an upset loss, winning 11 of those games outright. With their backs against the wall, look for the Magic to bring their A-Game this evening, improving on those stats and continuing their terrific play away from Orlando. *Eastern Conf. GOW
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